* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP912021 10/10/21 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 30 36 43 52 65 76 84 88 86 87 71 48 50 51 50 49 V (KT) LAND 25 30 36 43 52 65 76 84 88 86 87 60 37 30 28 27 27 V (KT) LGEM 25 26 28 31 34 41 52 63 72 77 80 58 36 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 18 13 10 11 12 12 8 10 7 8 17 27 35 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 1 3 2 0 0 -2 0 4 2 2 2 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 27 21 357 3 1 335 304 286 241 178 182 199 221 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 29.3 29.2 29.8 29.8 30.2 30.3 30.0 29.8 29.5 29.8 30.6 29.1 28.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 160 159 165 164 168 168 164 162 158 163 172 158 152 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.4 -52.8 -53.0 -52.5 -52.1 -52.0 -51.7 -52.1 -52.0 -52.2 -51.1 -50.7 -50.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.8 1.1 0.8 1.2 1.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 8 8 8 8 6 5 5 7 5 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 72 73 73 71 73 71 68 66 62 54 53 46 41 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 27 29 29 32 23 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 12 15 20 20 25 14 5 4 14 34 42 54 39 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 123 89 95 78 85 67 92 62 83 63 64 34 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -7 -7 -6 -7 -9 -11 -8 -3 1 0 -3 -5 -3 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 391 419 451 449 473 510 549 534 445 295 204 -89 -445 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 13.0 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 100.0 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 16 17 15 12 11 9 8 6 7 9 12 15 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 21 19 25 20 22 24 24 20 20 27 38 18 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 15 CX,CY: -13/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 581 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 7.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 60.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -1. 4. 12. 20. 27. 31. 35. 38. 42. 45. 48. 51. 55. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. -0. -3. -7. -7. -7. -9. -11. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 2. 4. 6. 7. 11. 19. 24. 24. 28. 14. -6. -6. -5. -5. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. -0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. GOES PREDICTORS 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. RI POTENTIAL 2. 4. 8. 11. 18. 16. 9. 2. -2. -6. -9. -10. -10. -10. -10. -9. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 5. 11. 18. 27. 40. 51. 59. 63. 61. 62. 46. 23. 25. 26. 25. 24. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 13.0 100.0 ** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP912021 INVEST 10/10/21 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 138.1 40.5 to 149.3 0.90 7.1 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 3.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 94.0 -33.0 to 159.5 0.66 4.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.8 19.6 to 1.3 0.37 2.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 7.2 37.8 to 2.1 0.86 4.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 55.2 800.8 to -82.5 0.84 -4.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 21.4 2.7 to 106.7 0.18 0.7 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 1.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.3 2.2 to -2.3 0.55 0.5 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 29% is 2.3 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 19% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 31% is 5.3 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 29.0% 20.3% 0.0% 0.0% 19.4% 31.2% 0.0% Logistic: 8.7% 57.4% 33.0% 25.3% 9.5% 58.1% 67.1% 40.3% Bayesian: 0.3% 6.0% 3.9% 0.8% 0.1% 1.8% 2.7% 1.3% Consensus: 3.0% 30.8% 19.1% 8.7% 3.2% 26.4% 33.6% 13.9% DTOPS: 2.0% 26.0% 9.0% 7.0% 4.0% 13.0% 9.0% 35.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP912021 INVEST 10/10/21 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##