* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP912021 10/08/21 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 27 29 32 38 49 59 68 73 80 86 85 68 59 59 58 V (KT) LAND 25 26 27 29 32 38 49 59 68 73 80 86 85 61 38 30 28 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 26 26 27 29 32 36 39 45 53 63 67 57 35 29 27 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 12 14 13 14 16 14 9 12 9 5 4 9 17 28 31 34 30 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -2 0 0 1 1 6 3 -4 0 -2 -4 1 1 -5 0 3 SHEAR DIR 29 32 42 43 35 25 341 338 344 322 274 178 191 201 258 264 246 SST (C) 28.5 29.0 29.5 29.5 29.4 29.4 29.2 30.0 30.7 30.7 29.9 30.1 30.9 30.6 28.5 28.7 28.6 POT. INT. (KT) 151 156 161 161 160 159 158 166 171 171 163 165 171 172 150 150 149 200 MB T (C) -52.4 -52.2 -52.8 -52.9 -52.6 -52.8 -52.5 -52.4 -52.3 -52.4 -52.2 -51.9 -51.6 -51.2 -51.1 -50.7 -51.0 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.7 0.7 1.0 0.5 0.8 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 3 3 4 5 7 8 9 8 7 6 7 6 8 7 8 700-500 MB RH 71 74 74 72 72 70 67 67 67 70 67 62 52 44 41 42 46 MODEL VTX (KT) 9 10 10 12 12 13 17 18 19 20 23 27 26 13 5 9 13 850 MB ENV VOR 37 30 21 15 15 8 12 26 16 1 1 18 53 75 72 48 55 200 MB DIV 48 57 74 101 109 129 102 86 71 65 38 84 86 43 52 55 77 700-850 TADV -3 -3 -1 1 0 -2 -7 -12 -9 -8 -2 0 -3 -17 7 2 -6 LAND (KM) 509 543 578 589 546 477 459 440 399 367 326 232 156 -15 -290 -391 -273 LAT (DEG N) 9.5 9.7 10.0 10.4 10.9 11.9 12.9 14.1 15.3 16.6 18.1 19.5 21.1 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 92.3 93.7 95.0 96.1 97.3 99.3 101.3 103.5 105.4 106.9 107.8 107.7 107.0 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 15 14 12 12 12 11 12 12 10 9 8 8 9 11 12 7 7 HEAT CONTENT 7 10 13 14 15 21 20 25 26 30 21 29 46 34 14 16 14 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 16 CX,CY: -15/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 15 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 449 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 55.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 11.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. 0. 5. 12. 19. 26. 31. 35. 38. 42. 46. 48. 50. 53. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 1. -1. -4. -9. -13. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 1. 2. 3. 3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 7. 10. 13. 14. 19. 22. 19. 3. -4. -1. 2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 1. -0. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. GOES PREDICTORS -0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -4. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 4. 7. 13. 24. 34. 43. 48. 55. 61. 60. 43. 34. 34. 33. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 9.5 92.3 ** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP912021 INVEST 10/08/21 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 132.7 40.5 to 149.3 0.85 5.7 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 2.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 77.8 -33.0 to 159.5 0.58 3.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.0 19.6 to 1.3 0.31 1.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.4 37.8 to 2.1 0.46 1.9 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 42.0 800.8 to -82.5 0.86 -4.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 11.8 2.7 to 106.7 0.09 0.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 1.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.1 2.2 to -2.3 0.52 0.4 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.3 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 16.3% 14.0% 0.0% 0.0% 14.9% 15.2% 0.0% Logistic: 0.9% 14.4% 3.8% 2.0% 0.6% 5.5% 10.5% 24.1% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.8% Consensus: 0.3% 10.3% 5.9% 0.7% 0.2% 6.8% 8.6% 8.3% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP912021 INVEST 10/08/21 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##