* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP912021 05/29/21 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 20 19 19 18 19 22 28 35 42 44 46 45 44 42 41 37 29 V (KT) LAND 20 19 19 18 19 22 28 35 42 44 46 45 44 42 41 37 29 V (KT) LGEM 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 18 17 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 10 8 9 7 6 8 4 4 12 10 13 18 17 17 19 26 44 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -3 -1 2 4 7 8 5 5 9 5 8 1 2 4 1 -5 SHEAR DIR 19 5 350 350 321 336 311 318 271 267 255 240 251 253 243 222 221 SST (C) 29.2 29.1 29.1 29.0 29.1 29.8 29.6 29.5 29.3 29.4 29.5 29.4 29.1 28.1 26.1 24.9 23.0 POT. INT. (KT) 155 154 155 154 156 164 161 159 156 155 156 154 153 144 124 112 93 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -52.5 -52.7 -53.0 -52.9 -52.9 -52.8 -52.9 -53.1 -53.0 -53.1 -53.2 -53.3 -53.4 -53.8 -53.8 -54.3 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.3 -0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 5 5 4 4 4 4 4 3 3 2 1 1 2 700-500 MB RH 71 69 68 69 67 69 72 71 70 68 68 65 65 63 62 58 56 MODEL VTX (KT) 8 7 7 7 8 10 11 11 11 11 13 12 13 12 11 11 10 850 MB ENV VOR -9 -24 -28 -32 -32 -30 -30 -31 -31 -28 -16 -5 -2 11 10 24 15 200 MB DIV -10 13 12 25 34 77 72 96 74 57 36 28 -17 -11 17 66 59 700-850 TADV -1 0 -2 -1 -1 -8 -6 -2 0 -1 0 -2 0 0 1 1 4 LAND (KM) 740 755 773 803 837 883 909 909 898 892 877 854 844 809 663 465 222 LAT (DEG N) 9.6 9.7 9.8 9.9 10.0 10.5 11.3 12.3 13.1 13.6 14.0 14.3 14.8 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 99.9 100.6 101.3 102.2 103.2 105.5 107.7 109.3 110.3 110.8 111.0 111.0 111.3 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 6 7 8 9 11 11 11 8 5 3 2 2 4 6 9 11 11 HEAT CONTENT 21 20 20 21 24 37 47 63 49 41 34 31 22 12 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 6 CX,CY: -5/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 15 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 570 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 26.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -0. 4. 12. 21. 28. 33. 36. 40. 42. 45. 47. 47. 47. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. 5. 4. 4. 3. -0. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -10. -10. -10. -9. -8. -6. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -8. -10. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -0. 0. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -10. -10. -10. -9. -8. -8. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -1. -1. -2. -1. 2. 8. 15. 22. 24. 26. 25. 24. 22. 21. 17. 9. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 9.6 99.9 ** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP912021 INVEST 05/29/21 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 135.1 40.5 to 149.3 0.87 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 14.8 -33.0 to 159.5 0.25 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.7 19.6 to 1.3 0.65 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 20.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.5 37.8 to 2.1 0.57 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 43.6 800.8 to -82.5 0.86 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 21.2 2.7 to 106.7 0.18 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.2 2.2 to -2.3 0.76 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.4% 5.1% 1.5% 0.6% 0.1% 1.3% 1.2% 12.1% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.1% 1.7% 0.5% 0.2% 0.0% 0.4% 0.4% 4.0% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP912021 INVEST 05/29/21 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##