* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP912020 09/11/20 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 20 19 18 19 19 23 27 30 32 31 29 27 28 29 32 33 36 V (KT) LAND 20 19 18 19 19 23 27 30 32 31 29 27 28 29 32 33 36 V (KT) LGEM 20 18 17 17 16 16 16 16 16 16 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 5 10 14 13 13 14 15 21 19 24 24 24 19 12 13 16 7 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -3 -4 -3 -3 -4 -4 -2 -4 -2 -5 -1 2 2 -2 -4 -4 SHEAR DIR 103 108 112 108 115 103 92 94 94 98 96 103 109 132 102 145 168 SST (C) 28.3 28.5 28.6 28.6 28.6 28.5 28.3 28.3 28.4 28.3 28.1 27.9 27.7 27.7 27.4 27.3 27.4 POT. INT. (KT) 146 148 149 149 149 148 146 145 146 144 141 138 136 136 134 134 136 200 MB T (C) -52.3 -52.1 -52.2 -52.3 -52.3 -52.4 -52.6 -52.4 -52.5 -52.4 -52.6 -52.7 -53.0 -53.0 -53.2 -53.2 -53.4 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 4 5 5 4 4 3 3 3 3 4 4 4 4 700-500 MB RH 56 60 59 59 61 61 58 63 63 65 63 66 65 63 58 58 53 MODEL VTX (KT) 7 7 7 7 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 66 68 82 90 112 108 84 79 76 67 44 40 42 42 37 45 31 200 MB DIV 31 24 22 44 61 65 24 42 15 17 -4 -23 -8 12 20 20 -19 700-850 TADV 1 0 0 0 2 0 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 LAND (KM) 914 968 1013 1065 1121 1222 1344 1460 1557 1624 1654 1677 1667 1674 1678 1721 1772 LAT (DEG N) 17.6 17.5 17.4 17.3 17.2 17.0 16.7 16.4 16.3 16.3 16.5 16.5 16.7 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 116.7 117.4 118.0 118.7 119.4 120.6 121.9 123.1 124.2 125.0 125.5 125.8 125.9 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 6 6 6 7 6 6 6 5 5 3 2 1 1 1 2 4 5 HEAT CONTENT 13 17 20 22 21 15 14 17 17 13 11 10 8 8 6 5 7 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):255/ 6 CX,CY: -5/ -1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 547 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 23.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. SST POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. 1. 5. 12. 20. 26. 30. 33. 36. 37. 39. 40. 41. 43. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 4. 1. -2. -6. -9. -11. -11. -10. -9. -11. -11. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -7. -7. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. -8. -9. -10. -10. -11. -10. -8. -8. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -1. -2. -1. -1. 3. 7. 10. 12. 11. 9. 7. 8. 9. 12. 13. 16. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 17.6 116.7 ** 2020 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP912020 INVEST 09/11/20 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 128.1 40.5 to 149.3 0.81 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.26 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.1 19.6 to 1.4 0.47 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 36.4 -33.0 to 160.6 0.36 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 20.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.2 37.8 to 2.1 0.55 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 18.6 2.7 to 106.7 0.15 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 111.8 800.8 to -82.5 0.78 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.2 2.2 to -1.9 0.49 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.2% 0.5% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.1% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP912020 INVEST 09/11/20 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##