* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP912020 09/11/20 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 27 28 29 31 34 38 41 42 43 43 44 45 48 51 55 V (KT) LAND 25 26 27 28 29 31 34 38 41 42 43 43 44 45 48 51 55 V (KT) LGEM 25 27 28 29 29 29 29 29 29 28 28 27 27 27 26 27 27 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 7 9 6 4 7 6 6 5 9 11 12 11 17 15 17 20 24 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -2 0 -1 -3 -1 -1 -5 -4 -3 -5 -3 -6 -3 -1 -3 -5 SHEAR DIR 117 129 149 146 131 107 139 141 136 131 148 130 116 119 84 73 82 SST (C) 28.4 28.1 27.8 27.9 28.1 28.1 27.9 28.0 27.7 26.9 27.8 27.9 28.1 28.4 28.6 28.8 28.9 POT. INT. (KT) 145 143 141 142 144 145 143 144 141 133 141 141 143 145 148 150 151 200 MB T (C) -51.9 -52.0 -52.0 -52.0 -51.9 -52.1 -51.9 -52.4 -52.2 -52.6 -52.1 -52.4 -52.4 -52.7 -52.5 -53.0 -52.8 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 6 5 5 5 4 4 4 3 3 3 3 3 3 4 5 700-500 MB RH 56 56 55 59 60 56 55 51 54 57 59 62 64 67 64 59 56 MODEL VTX (KT) 8 7 8 8 8 7 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 36 56 54 63 81 101 120 88 89 89 95 94 73 58 51 42 24 200 MB DIV 24 15 16 38 37 37 34 22 0 30 35 -4 -2 0 11 37 6 700-850 TADV 0 0 3 2 0 2 3 4 5 4 1 3 3 5 8 5 2 LAND (KM) 701 730 782 838 876 1002 1145 1323 1521 1706 1880 2020 2144 2229 2283 2301 2283 LAT (DEG N) 18.2 18.2 18.2 18.2 18.3 18.2 18.2 18.0 17.6 17.0 16.5 16.0 15.4 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 114.5 114.9 115.6 116.3 117.1 118.9 120.8 122.8 124.9 126.8 128.6 129.9 130.9 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 3 5 7 7 8 10 9 10 10 9 8 6 5 3 4 4 4 HEAT CONTENT 11 9 7 9 11 16 12 17 11 3 9 10 11 13 13 12 12 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):265/ 3 CX,CY: -2/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 549 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 36.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 12. 18. 23. 26. 29. 31. 33. 34. 35. 37. 39. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 6. 5. 5. 4. 4. 3. 2. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 0. 0. 1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -8. -8. -8. -7. -6. -6. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 9. 13. 16. 17. 18. 18. 19. 20. 23. 26. 30. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 18.2 114.5 ** 2020 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP912020 INVEST 09/11/20 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 118.1 40.5 to 149.3 0.71 5.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 3.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.7 19.6 to 1.4 0.71 4.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 26.0 -33.0 to 160.6 0.30 2.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.6 37.8 to 2.1 0.45 1.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 9.4 2.7 to 106.7 0.06 0.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 155.6 800.8 to -82.5 0.73 -3.8 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 1.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.9 2.2 to -1.9 0.75 0.4 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 24% is 1.6 times climatological mean (12.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 18% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 19% is 3.3 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 23.6% 15.8% 0.0% 0.0% 18.5% 19.3% 0.0% Logistic: 0.9% 3.3% 1.6% 0.7% 0.2% 1.5% 0.4% 0.2% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.3% 9.0% 5.8% 0.2% 0.1% 6.7% 6.6% 0.1% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP912020 INVEST 09/11/20 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##