* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP912020 08/08/20 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 28 31 36 46 55 65 71 74 70 63 60 55 53 50 50 V (KT) LAND 25 26 28 31 36 46 55 65 71 74 70 63 60 55 53 50 50 V (KT) LGEM 25 26 27 28 30 35 40 45 50 51 49 44 38 33 30 28 26 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 7 6 5 5 6 8 8 5 7 7 13 17 12 9 10 6 9 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 0 0 0 1 3 3 0 1 0 0 0 -1 -2 -4 0 -3 SHEAR DIR 10 1 338 10 356 326 323 300 227 251 198 212 207 186 220 307 5 SST (C) 30.2 30.2 30.1 30.1 30.1 30.3 29.5 28.5 28.4 26.2 26.2 25.2 25.4 25.8 26.1 26.7 27.4 POT. INT. (KT) 169 168 167 167 167 170 162 151 150 126 126 115 117 121 125 131 138 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -53.0 -52.6 -52.0 -52.6 -52.4 -51.9 -51.7 -51.6 -51.8 -51.2 -51.7 -51.8 -52.3 -52.4 -52.5 -52.3 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.1 0.0 -0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.6 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 8 8 6 6 6 5 4 2 2 1 1 1 2 3 4 700-500 MB RH 84 83 80 81 81 75 70 66 64 61 60 58 56 52 52 50 50 MODEL VTX (KT) 4 5 6 6 7 10 12 15 16 18 16 14 13 10 9 6 6 850 MB ENV VOR 12 0 5 9 5 12 27 31 23 12 19 8 12 1 39 47 51 200 MB DIV 81 55 46 63 77 46 59 50 56 16 7 24 17 9 -6 -17 -14 700-850 TADV -3 -4 -2 -4 -8 -7 -15 -16 -8 0 4 6 4 8 1 5 4 LAND (KM) 298 325 352 382 394 468 606 637 745 870 1014 1180 1321 1504 1744 2009 2252 LAT (DEG N) 13.7 14.0 14.3 14.6 14.9 15.7 16.7 17.8 18.6 19.2 19.6 19.7 19.6 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 99.5 100.8 102.1 103.3 104.6 107.2 110.0 112.8 115.5 118.2 120.4 122.5 124.4 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 14 13 12 12 13 14 14 14 14 12 10 9 9 10 12 12 11 HEAT CONTENT 33 34 31 31 34 32 19 11 10 0 0 0 0 0 0 4 9 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 14 CX,CY: -12/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 623 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 23.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 44.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 24.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -2. -1. 4. 11. 19. 25. 29. 32. 34. 35. 35. 36. 36. 38. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. 6. 6. 5. 4. 5. 4. 4. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -8. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 13. 16. 19. 17. 12. 10. 6. 5. 2. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -7. -6. -5. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 2. 1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 6. 11. 21. 30. 40. 46. 49. 45. 38. 35. 30. 28. 25. 25. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 13.7 99.5 ** 2020 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP912020 INVEST 08/08/20 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 142.7 40.5 to 149.3 0.94 9.1 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 3.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.8 19.6 to 1.4 0.76 6.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 64.4 -33.0 to 160.6 0.50 4.7 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 23.5 37.8 to 2.1 0.40 2.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 32.6 2.7 to 106.7 0.29 1.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 19.0 800.8 to -82.5 0.89 -6.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 2.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.0 2.2 to -1.9 0.29 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 26% is 2.1 times climatological mean (12.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 25% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 23% is 3.4 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 23% is 3.8 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 25.9% 25.0% 0.0% 0.0% 23.0% 22.6% 0.0% Logistic: 1.4% 16.8% 7.8% 3.6% 0.8% 14.8% 11.7% 6.3% Bayesian: 0.1% 6.7% 1.7% 0.4% 0.1% 0.2% 0.4% 0.3% Consensus: 0.5% 16.5% 11.5% 1.3% 0.3% 12.6% 11.6% 2.2% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP912020 INVEST 08/08/20 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##