* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP912020 08/07/20 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 29 33 38 43 53 65 70 77 77 79 78 75 71 65 61 57 V (KT) LAND 25 29 33 38 43 53 65 70 77 77 79 78 75 71 65 61 57 V (KT) LGEM 25 28 30 33 36 42 49 55 60 63 65 63 58 49 42 36 32 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 10 8 6 5 6 4 8 10 10 3 10 10 12 13 14 13 12 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 3 1 2 2 0 0 1 -3 5 -5 0 -1 -1 -1 -2 -1 SHEAR DIR 41 44 29 28 2 24 315 328 331 278 288 228 232 210 232 245 294 SST (C) 29.7 29.8 29.9 29.9 29.9 29.8 30.3 29.8 29.2 28.5 27.3 25.8 25.1 24.9 25.0 24.8 25.5 POT. INT. (KT) 164 164 165 165 165 164 170 164 158 151 138 122 115 112 114 112 120 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -52.5 -52.9 -53.0 -52.7 -52.5 -52.3 -51.9 -51.9 -51.6 -51.8 -51.5 -51.9 -51.9 -52.2 -51.8 -52.0 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.2 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 6 5 6 6 6 6 5 5 3 2 1 1 1 1 1 700-500 MB RH 81 82 84 83 81 80 76 71 66 62 60 57 56 54 49 48 45 MODEL VTX (KT) 4 4 5 7 7 7 10 9 12 12 14 14 14 12 9 9 7 850 MB ENV VOR 15 13 4 -6 2 0 12 13 31 35 2 -2 -4 3 6 52 49 200 MB DIV 47 75 63 41 45 114 77 56 40 40 21 35 4 8 1 -8 12 700-850 TADV 1 0 0 -1 -2 -2 -7 -12 -6 -9 0 3 5 9 13 4 5 LAND (KM) 367 369 391 422 455 480 519 584 655 653 752 863 1038 1183 1416 1685 1973 LAT (DEG N) 12.5 12.7 12.8 13.0 13.2 13.9 14.8 15.9 17.2 18.3 19.2 20.0 20.4 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 97.1 98.4 99.5 100.7 101.9 104.2 106.6 109.1 111.6 113.9 116.4 118.9 121.3 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 14 12 11 12 11 12 14 14 13 13 12 12 11 11 13 14 14 HEAT CONTENT 30 28 31 37 37 31 38 20 17 11 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 15 CX,CY: -13/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 546 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 95.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 32.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. SST POTENTIAL -1. -1. -1. -1. 4. 11. 19. 26. 30. 33. 35. 37. 37. 37. 37. 38. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 5. 6. 6. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. 5. 5. 3. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 2. 2. 2. 5. 6. 10. 10. 13. 12. 11. 8. 5. 4. 2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. RI POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 6. 4. 1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 4. 8. 13. 18. 28. 40. 45. 52. 52. 54. 53. 50. 46. 40. 36. 32. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 12.5 97.1 ** 2020 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP912020 INVEST 08/07/20 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 139.3 40.5 to 149.3 0.91 9.1 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 4.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.1 19.6 to 1.4 0.68 6.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 54.2 -33.0 to 160.6 0.45 4.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.0 37.8 to 2.1 0.69 4.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 32.6 2.7 to 106.7 0.29 1.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 15.4 800.8 to -82.5 0.89 -6.6 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 2.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.0 2.2 to -1.9 0.55 0.4 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 31% is 2.5 times climatological mean (12.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 27% is 3.2 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 26% is 3.9 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 42% is 7.1 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 31.1% 27.2% 0.0% 0.0% 25.9% 41.9% 0.0% Logistic: 6.1% 38.3% 19.7% 11.4% 1.8% 42.4% 67.3% 51.6% Bayesian: 2.5% 53.8% 30.8% 9.6% 1.2% 14.9% 9.6% 8.8% Consensus: 2.8% 41.0% 25.9% 7.0% 1.0% 27.8% 39.6% 20.1% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP912020 INVEST 08/07/20 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##