* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP912020 08/07/20 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 20 21 23 25 30 39 52 61 69 73 75 76 76 71 66 62 58 V (KT) LAND 20 21 23 25 30 39 52 61 69 73 75 76 76 71 66 62 58 V (KT) LGEM 20 20 21 22 24 27 32 37 42 46 50 53 52 47 40 35 31 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 15 8 7 5 5 5 5 7 11 4 9 6 16 11 14 14 14 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 3 2 1 2 0 0 0 -1 2 -3 -3 -1 0 0 -3 -1 SHEAR DIR 26 36 38 26 17 8 326 320 332 317 266 242 230 224 222 238 277 SST (C) 30.1 29.9 29.9 30.0 30.1 30.1 30.1 30.3 29.4 28.7 28.2 26.2 25.6 24.4 25.0 24.2 25.3 POT. INT. (KT) 168 165 164 165 167 167 167 170 160 153 148 126 120 107 114 106 118 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -52.9 -52.5 -52.9 -53.0 -52.2 -52.6 -51.8 -52.1 -51.4 -51.9 -51.5 -51.8 -51.8 -52.1 -52.0 -52.0 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 -0.1 0.1 0.1 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.2 0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 5 7 7 6 5 7 6 7 6 6 4 3 2 1 1 1 1 700-500 MB RH 83 82 82 84 83 81 79 72 69 64 60 58 56 54 51 46 47 MODEL VTX (KT) 4 4 4 5 7 8 9 9 10 12 13 13 14 13 11 9 8 850 MB ENV VOR 21 16 11 10 2 9 8 15 25 39 5 0 -11 -6 0 29 53 200 MB DIV 60 48 77 61 43 82 91 55 39 45 29 19 21 0 5 -5 0 700-850 TADV 2 0 0 0 -1 -2 -2 -8 -8 -10 0 1 11 7 11 8 5 LAND (KM) 364 317 316 329 355 400 420 471 580 579 669 755 926 1079 1276 1535 1821 LAT (DEG N) 12.5 12.9 13.1 13.2 13.4 14.0 14.8 15.8 17.1 18.2 19.1 20.0 20.6 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 95.5 96.8 97.9 99.0 100.1 102.5 104.9 107.4 110.0 112.4 115.0 117.5 120.1 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 15 12 11 11 11 12 13 14 13 13 13 12 12 11 12 13 14 HEAT CONTENT 31 35 31 31 34 31 34 30 18 11 9 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 17 CX,CY: -15/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 15 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 593 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 66.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 16.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -3. -2. 3. 12. 20. 28. 33. 36. 39. 42. 43. 43. 43. 44. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. 6. 6. 6. 5. 4. 3. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -2. THETA_E EXCESS -0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 8. 10. 12. 12. 12. 9. 6. 4. 3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 5. 10. 19. 32. 41. 49. 53. 55. 56. 56. 51. 46. 42. 38. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 12.5 95.5 ** 2020 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP912020 INVEST 08/07/20 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 145.9 40.5 to 149.3 0.97 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.9 19.6 to 1.4 0.64 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 57.8 -33.0 to 160.6 0.47 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 20.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.7 37.8 to 2.1 0.45 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 32.4 2.7 to 106.7 0.29 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 13.6 800.8 to -82.5 0.89 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.6 2.2 to -1.9 0.39 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.5% 21.2% 9.9% 4.9% 0.8% 27.5% 47.0% 37.5% Bayesian: 0.2% 8.3% 3.5% 0.8% 0.3% 4.0% 2.3% 5.2% Consensus: 0.6% 9.8% 4.5% 1.9% 0.4% 10.5% 16.4% 14.2% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP912020 INVEST 08/07/20 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##