* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP912020 05/30/20 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 29 32 33 37 40 44 47 50 52 54 55 56 55 55 58 V (KT) LAND 25 27 29 32 33 28 27 27 34 37 38 40 41 42 42 42 44 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 26 27 27 25 26 26 29 29 31 33 35 36 36 36 37 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 11 13 12 12 11 18 18 13 7 8 15 21 26 21 24 21 10 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -5 -6 -6 -2 -2 -2 -4 -4 -1 0 2 2 2 0 3 0 2 SHEAR DIR 143 145 144 143 155 188 209 202 148 111 86 86 88 100 65 59 53 SST (C) 30.1 30.1 30.2 30.3 30.0 29.4 29.5 29.9 30.3 29.6 29.4 29.7 30.0 30.1 30.0 29.5 28.9 POT. INT. (KT) 164 164 165 167 163 156 157 162 166 158 156 159 161 161 161 156 150 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -52.6 -52.2 -52.5 -52.8 -52.2 -52.7 -52.0 -52.8 -52.0 -52.6 -51.8 -52.4 -51.6 -52.4 -51.7 -52.8 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 5 6 6 5 5 5 4 6 4 6 5 7 6 7 5 8 6 700-500 MB RH 85 84 86 86 86 87 87 84 84 83 83 82 82 81 80 77 74 MODEL VTX (KT) 11 12 12 13 12 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 79 75 73 65 70 74 76 87 66 81 68 73 78 88 81 94 84 200 MB DIV 120 127 153 153 151 169 151 138 76 84 80 109 107 75 56 60 28 700-850 TADV 0 -1 0 0 -1 0 0 0 0 0 3 5 4 1 0 0 0 LAND (KM) 207 160 113 55 7 -42 -37 -3 29 15 62 119 166 181 173 106 57 LAT (DEG N) 12.2 12.7 13.2 13.8 14.4 15.3 15.7 15.9 15.8 15.7 15.2 14.8 14.4 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 91.8 91.9 92.0 92.1 92.2 92.5 93.0 93.9 94.8 95.8 96.6 97.3 97.5 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 5 5 6 6 6 4 4 5 4 5 5 3 2 1 2 3 2 HEAT CONTENT 23 22 22 23 22 17 18 21 23 19 20 28 36 38 33 23 15 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):355/ 4 CX,CY: 0/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 600 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 79.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 15.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. SST POTENTIAL -1. -1. -2. -1. 4. 12. 19. 25. 30. 33. 36. 40. 43. 45. 48. 51. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -5. -7. -7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -3. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. -3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 7. 9. 9. 9. 9. 8. 5. 3. 2. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 7. 8. 12. 15. 19. 22. 25. 27. 29. 30. 31. 30. 30. 33. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 12.2 91.8 ** 2020 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP912020 INVEST 05/30/20 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 139.5 40.5 to 149.3 0.91 9.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 3.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.5 19.6 to 1.4 0.44 4.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 140.8 -33.0 to 160.6 0.90 8.5 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.8 37.8 to 2.1 0.50 2.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 22.4 2.7 to 106.7 0.19 1.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 3.6 800.8 to -82.5 0.90 -6.6 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 2.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.4 2.2 to -1.9 0.44 0.3 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 29% is 2.3 times climatological mean (12.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 26% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 23% is 3.5 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 23% is 3.9 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 29.2% 26.0% 0.0% 0.0% 23.3% 23.1% 0.0% Logistic: 3.7% 40.9% 24.0% 15.2% 12.5% 47.5% 84.3% 48.3% Bayesian: 0.7% 5.5% 5.0% 0.7% 0.3% 1.1% 1.0% 7.9% Consensus: 1.5% 25.2% 18.3% 5.3% 4.3% 24.0% 36.1% 18.7% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP912020 INVEST 05/30/20 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##