* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP912020 05/29/20 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 30 34 39 48 52 56 59 56 56 60 64 70 74 76 82 V (KT) LAND 25 27 30 34 39 48 52 38 32 33 32 36 40 46 50 52 58 V (KT) LGEM 25 26 27 28 29 32 32 28 27 27 32 36 43 53 64 73 82 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 4 12 11 12 13 11 18 12 8 2 2 5 6 12 11 7 7 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -2 -5 -6 -6 -4 -7 -8 -6 -2 -4 0 0 1 3 0 0 SHEAR DIR 130 133 157 141 143 146 149 178 158 221 107 33 81 47 52 20 38 SST (C) 30.3 30.4 30.4 30.4 30.4 30.7 30.4 29.9 29.9 30.3 30.7 30.9 30.8 30.6 30.6 30.6 30.5 POT. INT. (KT) 166 166 166 166 167 169 167 160 161 164 168 168 168 168 165 168 168 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -52.3 -52.7 -52.9 -52.3 -52.7 -52.5 -52.5 -52.3 -52.5 -52.4 -52.5 -52.4 -52.4 -52.1 -52.1 -51.7 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.5 0.4 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 5 5 6 4 5 4 5 5 6 5 6 5 6 5 7 700-500 MB RH 84 85 86 85 85 86 86 85 84 85 82 84 83 85 81 83 81 MODEL VTX (KT) 9 10 11 12 13 14 11 12 12 11 10 11 12 15 18 18 21 850 MB ENV VOR 84 85 91 99 96 92 89 73 81 74 63 63 68 75 79 88 110 200 MB DIV 110 124 139 158 185 181 154 121 139 85 83 105 105 98 128 70 114 700-850 TADV 1 0 1 0 -2 -3 -3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 -1 0 0 LAND (KM) 331 291 259 232 195 101 14 -27 -29 1 39 109 172 243 275 266 195 LAT (DEG N) 11.0 11.4 11.7 12.0 12.4 13.4 14.5 15.2 15.6 15.6 15.4 14.8 14.2 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 91.7 91.8 91.8 91.9 92.0 92.2 92.4 92.6 93.0 93.4 93.7 94.0 94.2 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 5 4 3 4 4 6 6 2 3 2 2 4 4 3 0 3 5 HEAT CONTENT 25 26 26 26 25 25 24 21 20 24 25 26 26 28 30 29 26 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):355/ 5 CX,CY: 0/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 15 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 527 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 69.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 33.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -2. -1. 4. 11. 19. 26. 30. 34. 38. 42. 45. 48. 51. 55. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -1. -0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 2. 3. 4. 2. 0. 2. 3. 6. 9. 8. 9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 10. 10. 10. 10. 8. 6. 3. 2. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. RI POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 7. 4. 1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 9. 14. 23. 27. 31. 34. 31. 31. 35. 39. 45. 49. 51. 57. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 11.0 91.7 ** 2020 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP912020 INVEST 05/29/20 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 141.2 40.5 to 149.3 0.93 9.3 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 4.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.7 19.6 to 1.4 0.49 4.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 143.2 -33.0 to 160.6 0.91 8.7 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.7 37.8 to 2.1 0.51 3.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 25.6 2.7 to 106.7 0.22 1.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : -3.4 800.8 to -82.5 0.91 -6.8 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 2.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.6 2.2 to -1.9 0.39 0.3 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 30% is 2.4 times climatological mean (12.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 27% is 3.2 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 25% is 3.8 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 34% is 5.8 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 30.5% 27.3% 0.0% 0.0% 25.2% 34.1% 0.0% Logistic: 2.8% 31.7% 17.7% 10.1% 7.9% 43.8% 87.6% 58.3% Bayesian: 0.6% 3.5% 3.4% 0.7% 0.1% 1.4% 1.8% 9.8% Consensus: 1.1% 21.9% 16.1% 3.6% 2.7% 23.4% 41.2% 22.7% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP912020 INVEST 05/29/20 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##