* EAST PACIFIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP912019 08/02/19 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 25 24 24 22 21 20 19 19 19 20 21 V (KT) LAND 25 25 25 24 24 22 21 20 19 19 19 20 21 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 24 24 23 20 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 19 18 18 18 19 25 24 20 17 16 15 23 21 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 2 3 5 0 0 1 3 -1 0 -3 -1 SHEAR DIR 276 283 291 293 292 281 300 283 271 251 232 216 226 SST (C) 28.3 28.3 28.3 28.4 28.3 28.0 27.4 27.1 26.6 26.2 25.9 25.8 25.7 POT. INT. (KT) 147 147 146 148 146 142 137 133 128 122 118 116 114 200 MB T (C) -53.9 -53.4 -53.4 -53.4 -53.5 -53.3 -53.4 -53.3 -53.4 -53.5 -53.9 -54.1 -54.4 200 MB VXT (C) -0.4 -0.6 -0.5 -0.2 -0.1 0.4 0.8 0.6 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 6 6 6 5 4 4 4 3 3 2 700-500 MB RH 63 63 63 63 63 62 62 57 53 47 42 38 33 MODEL VTX (KT) 9 8 8 8 8 6 5 4 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -6 -8 -2 -7 -8 -11 -21 -28 -25 -33 -50 -50 -45 200 MB DIV 19 -3 0 -11 8 -14 -12 6 -11 -31 -11 -15 -23 700-850 TADV 4 2 0 0 2 4 3 4 6 3 4 2 1 LAND (KM) 1452 1470 1479 1489 1480 1456 1452 1445 1451 1444 1458 1473 1480 LAT (DEG N) 12.5 12.9 13.3 13.8 14.3 15.3 16.2 17.2 18.1 18.7 19.0 19.0 19.0 LONG(DEG W) 118.3 119.1 119.7 120.4 121.0 121.9 122.8 123.6 124.5 125.1 125.6 125.8 125.9 STM SPEED (KT) 9 8 8 8 7 6 7 6 6 3 2 0 0 HEAT CONTENT 16 15 15 16 18 15 6 4 1 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 9 CX,CY: -7/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 633 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 78.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 12. 18. 22. 25. 28. 28. 28. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. -1. -5. -8. -10. -12. -13. -13. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -1. -2. -3. -6. -7. -9. -9. -10. -10. -9. -9. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -6. -9. -10. -10. -10. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. RI POTENTIAL 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 5. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. -4. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 12.5 118.3 ** 2019 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP912019 INVEST 08/02/19 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 121.8 40.5 to 149.3 0.75 1.6 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 1.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 18.4 19.6 to 1.6 0.07 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 2.6 -33.0 to 156.2 0.19 0.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 16.0 2.7 to 106.7 0.13 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.1 37.8 to 2.1 0.64 1.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 124.0 800.8 to -82.5 0.77 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.1 2.2 to -1.9 0.27 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 7.1 62.3 to 0.0 0.89 -0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 0.6 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 12.1% 4.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.5% 1.9% 0.7% 0.3% 0.1% 0.4% 1.0% 3.5% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.2% 4.8% 1.8% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.3% 1.2% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP912019 INVEST 08/02/19 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##