* EAST PACIFIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP912019 05/22/19 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 29 29 29 31 35 38 44 47 51 51 52 V (KT) LAND 25 27 26 26 26 26 27 31 37 40 43 44 37 V (KT) LGEM 25 27 25 26 26 26 27 29 29 29 28 26 23 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 7 11 12 7 4 4 7 8 11 11 14 18 16 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -1 -4 -3 -1 -2 -4 -1 2 0 3 1 4 SHEAR DIR 348 337 346 342 298 298 299 314 298 242 218 192 176 SST (C) 29.3 29.3 29.2 29.2 29.2 29.2 29.3 29.3 29.3 29.3 29.2 28.8 28.5 POT. INT. (KT) 155 155 153 152 152 152 153 153 153 154 153 150 148 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -52.3 -52.7 -52.9 -52.4 -52.4 -52.4 -52.8 -52.7 -52.8 -52.5 -52.9 -52.5 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.0 -0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 8 8 9 8 8 7 8 7 7 6 6 700-500 MB RH 70 72 70 67 67 73 74 75 73 76 78 82 85 MODEL VTX (KT) 7 9 10 7 6 7 8 7 9 10 11 11 11 850 MB ENV VOR 63 70 76 66 69 88 75 91 88 110 119 123 107 200 MB DIV 63 60 64 56 61 78 79 65 62 48 113 136 207 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 -1 0 0 0 LAND (KM) 58 19 -12 -27 -35 -20 -13 3 11 35 51 53 -48 LAT (DEG N) 11.8 12.0 12.2 12.3 12.4 12.4 12.5 12.4 12.3 11.9 11.6 11.1 10.7 LONG(DEG W) 87.3 87.0 86.8 86.7 86.7 86.9 87.1 87.2 87.2 87.1 87.0 86.5 85.4 STM SPEED (KT) 4 3 2 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 2 4 7 HEAT CONTENT 15 16 17 25 25 17 18 17 17 15 15 17 19 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 70/ 5 CX,CY: 5/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 563 (MEAN=584) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 73.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 4.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -1. -1. 3. 9. 17. 24. 30. 34. 36. 35. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 6. 5. 4. 3. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -5. -7. -9. -11. -14. -14. -14. PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 0. -1. 0. 1. 0. 2. 3. 6. 5. 5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 4. 4. 6. 10. 13. 19. 22. 26. 26. 27. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 11.8 87.3 ** 2018 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP912019 INVEST 05/22/19 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 123.2 40.5 to 149.3 0.76 6.2 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 3.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.2 19.6 to 1.4 0.63 4.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 19.6 1.8 to 106.7 0.17 1.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 60.8 -33.0 to 156.2 0.50 3.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.1 37.8 to 2.1 0.47 2.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 56.4 721.6 to -82.5 0.83 -3.9 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 3.0 62.3 to 0.0 0.95 0.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.7 2.2 to -1.9 0.13 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 1.6 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 19% is 3.3 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 19.5% 19.1% 0.0% 0.0% 17.3% 19.4% 0.0% Logistic: 3.1% 27.2% 13.3% 5.9% 3.7% 13.6% 39.8% 34.6% Bayesian: 1.5% 16.4% 6.8% 1.3% 0.3% 8.2% 30.7% 5.2% Consensus: 1.5% 21.0% 13.1% 2.4% 1.3% 13.0% 30.0% 13.3% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% 7.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP912019 INVEST 05/22/19 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX