* EAST PACIFIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP912019 05/22/19 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 20 20 20 21 23 29 36 43 46 48 49 49 V (KT) LAND 20 20 20 20 21 23 29 36 43 46 48 49 49 V (KT) LGEM 20 20 20 21 21 22 22 23 23 23 22 21 19 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 5 5 6 7 6 2 3 3 9 11 17 17 15 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 0 -1 -4 -3 0 -5 -1 0 -1 1 1 3 SHEAR DIR 327 325 345 348 354 297 13 269 298 233 219 209 197 SST (C) 29.2 29.2 29.2 29.2 29.2 29.2 29.2 29.2 29.3 29.2 29.1 28.9 28.6 POT. INT. (KT) 154 153 152 151 152 152 150 152 153 153 151 150 148 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -52.4 -52.2 -52.5 -52.8 -52.1 -52.8 -52.2 -52.9 -52.3 -53.2 -52.6 -53.5 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 7 9 9 8 8 9 7 8 7 8 6 7 5 700-500 MB RH 71 69 72 70 67 71 74 74 76 78 80 84 86 MODEL VTX (KT) 7 7 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 63 63 70 82 74 76 70 67 79 84 104 101 94 200 MB DIV 42 56 62 61 56 55 66 76 67 74 124 142 140 700-850 TADV 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 -2 0 -1 0 0 0 LAND (KM) 96 50 34 19 26 49 65 57 66 75 91 84 29 LAT (DEG N) 11.7 12.0 12.1 12.2 12.2 12.1 12.0 12.0 11.7 11.4 11.1 10.9 10.8 LONG(DEG W) 87.7 87.4 87.3 87.2 87.3 87.5 87.6 87.5 87.3 87.1 87.0 86.7 86.1 STM SPEED (KT) 4 3 1 0 1 1 0 1 1 2 1 2 4 HEAT CONTENT 15 15 16 16 16 16 16 16 15 15 16 17 18 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 60/ 5 CX,CY: 4/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 622 (MEAN=584) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 29.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 68.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 1.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -2. -2. 2. 9. 18. 26. 33. 37. 40. 39. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 9. 8. 7. 6. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -6. -9. -11. -13. -13. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 2. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 9. 16. 23. 26. 28. 29. 29. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 11.7 87.7 ** 2018 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP912019 INVEST 05/22/19 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 128.6 40.5 to 149.3 0.81 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.8 19.6 to 1.4 0.76 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 15.6 1.8 to 106.7 0.13 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 55.4 -33.0 to 156.2 0.47 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 29.3 37.8 to 2.1 0.24 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 20.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.00 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 47.2 721.6 to -82.5 0.84 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.8 2.2 to -1.9 0.33 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 2.9% 23.2% 12.0% 5.0% 2.0% 12.6% 34.9% 39.9% Bayesian: 0.4% 1.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 1.6% 0.9% Consensus: 1.1% 8.3% 4.0% 1.7% 0.7% 4.2% 12.2% 13.6% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP912019 INVEST 05/22/19 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX