* EAST PACIFIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP912019 05/18/19 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 19 19 19 20 22 28 36 46 52 56 55 54 V (KT) LAND 20 19 19 19 20 22 28 36 46 52 56 55 54 V (KT) LGEM 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 5 9 7 7 6 3 2 3 5 8 8 11 10 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -1 0 0 -1 1 0 0 -1 -2 -1 -1 0 SHEAR DIR 120 114 132 149 156 228 354 360 360 8 358 341 354 SST (C) 30.0 30.0 29.9 29.8 29.6 29.9 28.8 28.0 28.7 28.7 28.4 28.3 28.2 POT. INT. (KT) 163 163 162 161 160 162 151 142 150 150 146 144 142 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -53.0 -52.9 -52.7 -53.0 -53.0 -53.1 -52.9 -52.9 -52.9 -52.9 -52.6 -52.7 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 9 9 9 9 8 7 6 5 5 5 5 700-500 MB RH 77 76 73 72 69 67 69 70 72 72 74 73 77 MODEL VTX (KT) 2 3 3 3 3 4 4 4 5 5 4 4 4 850 MB ENV VOR 16 24 27 34 36 39 39 42 37 24 18 15 25 200 MB DIV 71 54 55 51 55 38 77 74 74 93 89 77 80 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 LAND (KM) 490 447 416 426 446 517 578 571 526 480 423 353 308 LAT (DEG N) 11.0 11.1 11.1 10.8 10.4 9.4 8.5 7.8 7.2 6.8 6.7 7.0 7.3 LONG(DEG W) 95.0 94.5 94.0 93.6 93.1 92.2 91.4 90.5 89.6 88.6 87.5 86.8 86.5 STM SPEED (KT) 6 5 5 6 7 6 6 6 6 6 4 3 2 HEAT CONTENT 35 33 30 26 23 20 19 16 11 10 11 13 14 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 65/ 7 CX,CY: 6/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 521 (MEAN=584) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 7.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 8.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. SST POTENTIAL -1. -3. -4. -4. 0. 8. 17. 27. 33. 37. 40. 39. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 9. 9. 9. 9. 9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. -1. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -6. -5. -4. -4. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -6. -8. -8. -7. -7. -10. -11. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -1. -1. 0. 2. 8. 16. 26. 32. 36. 35. 34. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 11.0 95.0 ** 2018 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP912019 INVEST 05/18/19 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 147.5 40.5 to 149.3 0.98 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.7 19.6 to 1.4 0.71 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 29.4 1.8 to 106.7 0.26 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 57.2 -33.0 to 156.2 0.48 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.1 37.8 to 2.1 0.58 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 20.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.00 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 17.6 721.6 to -82.5 0.88 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.1 2.2 to -1.9 0.26 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 2.3% 18.3% 14.4% 5.7% 2.4% 30.3% 9.5% 57.1% Bayesian: 0.0% 1.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% Consensus: 0.8% 6.5% 4.9% 1.9% 0.8% 10.1% 3.2% 19.1% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP912019 INVEST 05/18/19 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX