* EAST PACIFIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP912019 05/17/19 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 22 24 27 30 38 48 57 63 66 66 65 66 V (KT) LAND 20 22 24 27 30 38 48 57 63 66 66 65 66 V (KT) LGEM 20 20 21 21 22 24 28 32 37 40 40 38 37 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 4 7 7 5 4 3 6 5 9 8 10 5 2 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 11 12 4 0 -1 -2 -2 3 4 5 4 3 0 SHEAR DIR 58 90 103 130 168 47 108 149 170 178 219 231 160 SST (C) 29.4 29.5 29.6 29.7 29.8 29.8 29.7 29.7 29.6 29.4 29.3 29.2 29.5 POT. INT. (KT) 157 158 159 159 160 159 158 157 158 156 155 154 158 200 MB T (C) -52.2 -52.7 -52.8 -52.4 -52.1 -52.9 -52.3 -52.7 -52.3 -52.8 -52.3 -52.9 -52.2 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 7 7 7 8 9 9 9 8 8 7 7 700-500 MB RH 73 73 73 70 70 66 57 54 54 56 60 64 65 MODEL VTX (KT) 0 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -13 -8 -14 -12 -11 -23 -33 -22 -10 0 12 15 5 200 MB DIV 108 97 88 74 86 55 -3 2 29 53 73 65 57 700-850 TADV -4 -3 -1 0 0 -1 0 2 4 4 2 2 2 LAND (KM) 808 832 849 857 850 824 780 797 814 861 889 937 959 LAT (DEG N) 9.3 9.3 9.4 9.5 9.7 10.0 10.3 10.0 9.7 9.1 8.6 7.9 7.5 LONG(DEG W) 100.9 101.5 102.1 102.5 102.8 102.9 102.6 102.3 102.0 101.7 101.1 100.4 99.5 STM SPEED (KT) 5 6 5 4 3 2 2 1 3 4 4 5 5 HEAT CONTENT 52 59 66 67 68 68 73 73 70 57 46 39 37 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 4 CX,CY: -3/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 573 (MEAN=584) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 52.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 12.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -3. -3. 1. 8. 17. 27. 33. 38. 41. 41. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 9. 8. 8. 9. 10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 2. 2. 2. 4. 7. 7. 6. 5. 2. -1. -2. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. 5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 7. 10. 18. 28. 37. 43. 46. 46. 45. 46. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 9.3 100.9 ** 2018 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP912019 INVEST 05/17/19 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 140.7 40.5 to 149.3 0.92 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.4 19.6 to 1.4 0.78 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 62.4 1.8 to 106.7 0.58 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 90.6 -33.0 to 156.2 0.65 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.8 37.8 to 2.1 0.59 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 20.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.00 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 43.8 721.6 to -82.5 0.84 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.9 2.2 to -1.9 0.32 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 3.0% 27.2% 20.4% 9.1% 0.8% 38.5% 57.6% 77.2% Bayesian: 0.9% 9.5% 9.0% 2.1% 0.1% 0.2% 1.4% 0.3% Consensus: 1.3% 12.2% 9.8% 3.8% 0.3% 12.9% 19.7% 25.8% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP912019 INVEST 05/17/19 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX