* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP902021 10/02/21 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 24 23 22 22 25 29 34 38 41 41 41 38 33 25 16 V (KT) LAND 25 25 24 23 22 22 25 29 34 38 41 41 41 38 33 25 16 V (KT) LGEM 25 24 23 22 21 20 18 17 17 17 17 16 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 19 16 15 14 12 14 13 11 5 7 11 13 16 24 39 44 44 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 16 12 7 2 1 -1 -3 -6 0 0 -3 -5 -2 2 -3 -6 -3 SHEAR DIR 19 17 9 8 354 346 341 342 313 252 214 216 200 219 226 227 229 SST (C) 28.3 28.1 27.9 27.9 27.8 27.7 27.6 27.6 27.6 27.5 27.1 26.7 26.4 25.4 25.1 24.4 23.6 POT. INT. (KT) 145 143 140 140 140 138 136 137 138 137 132 128 126 117 114 106 97 200 MB T (C) -53.1 -53.4 -53.5 -53.2 -53.3 -53.4 -53.2 -53.5 -53.3 -53.6 -53.3 -53.6 -53.4 -54.1 -54.1 -54.5 -54.7 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 3 3 2 3 3 3 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 1 1 1 1 700-500 MB RH 44 45 42 44 47 47 55 64 72 73 71 64 58 52 45 42 42 MODEL VTX (KT) 6 5 5 5 5 6 6 6 6 7 8 7 8 7 8 8 7 850 MB ENV VOR -19 -20 -18 -13 -5 -14 3 -5 2 12 15 18 24 20 26 7 -38 200 MB DIV 36 20 19 7 -11 9 22 31 58 86 104 89 83 64 28 31 31 700-850 TADV 0 0 -1 0 0 -1 -1 -2 0 -2 -1 2 1 2 0 2 6 LAND (KM) 2416 2409 2364 2337 2300 2230 2169 2115 2024 1923 1838 1765 1760 1841 1997 2033 1864 LAT (DEG N) 13.5 13.7 13.8 13.7 13.6 13.3 13.3 13.4 13.9 14.7 15.4 16.1 17.1 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 132.5 133.0 133.4 133.7 134.1 134.9 135.5 136.0 136.7 137.4 138.0 138.5 138.3 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 5 5 3 4 5 3 2 3 5 5 5 5 7 10 9 8 8 HEAT CONTENT 15 12 9 8 7 6 5 5 5 5 3 2 1 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 5 CX,CY: -4/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 641 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 71.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 12. 17. 22. 26. 28. 30. 30. 30. 29. 28. 28. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -5. -11. -17. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -10. -10. -11. -11. -13. -15. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -0. 4. 9. 13. 16. 16. 16. 13. 8. 0. -9. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 13.5 132.5 ** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP902021 INVEST 10/02/21 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 116.6 40.5 to 149.3 0.70 3.7 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 2.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 14.2 -33.0 to 159.5 0.25 1.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.3 19.6 to 1.3 0.24 1.1 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.5 37.8 to 2.1 0.60 2.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 139.4 800.8 to -82.5 0.75 -2.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 10.2 2.7 to 106.7 0.07 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 11.6 56.6 to 0.0 0.80 0.8 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.6 2.2 to -2.3 0.63 0.4 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 0.9 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 11.1% 9.0% 0.0% 0.0% 8.0% 8.3% 0.0% Logistic: 0.1% 1.3% 0.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 2.8% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 4.2% 3.2% 0.0% 0.0% 2.7% 2.8% 0.9% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP902021 INVEST 10/02/21 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##