* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP902021 10/02/21 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 24 22 20 19 19 22 27 33 36 38 40 39 36 32 25 16 V (KT) LAND 25 24 22 20 19 19 22 27 33 36 38 40 39 36 32 25 16 V (KT) LGEM 25 24 23 22 20 18 17 16 16 16 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 19 20 17 18 16 12 10 10 3 7 6 11 15 26 34 45 61 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 13 14 13 7 2 0 -2 0 0 0 0 -4 -3 2 4 1 -9 SHEAR DIR 357 12 10 7 6 357 349 354 347 315 284 242 221 225 221 227 233 SST (C) 28.3 28.2 28.0 27.9 27.9 27.8 27.7 27.6 27.5 27.5 27.4 27.1 26.6 26.3 25.0 24.0 23.6 POT. INT. (KT) 145 144 142 140 140 139 137 136 136 137 136 132 127 125 112 102 98 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -53.2 -53.6 -53.6 -53.3 -53.5 -53.2 -53.6 -53.4 -53.5 -53.2 -53.5 -53.4 -53.9 -53.8 -54.3 -53.9 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.2 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.1 0.0 0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 3 3 3 2 3 3 3 3 2 2 2 2 2 1 2 1 1 700-500 MB RH 48 44 45 41 42 47 50 58 65 69 71 69 65 59 52 48 47 MODEL VTX (KT) 6 6 5 4 4 5 6 6 6 7 6 7 6 6 5 5 6 850 MB ENV VOR -19 -16 -16 -16 -13 -4 -5 0 5 2 15 12 18 17 22 12 -17 200 MB DIV 44 24 25 13 13 -4 -2 47 54 42 74 76 82 66 59 70 18 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 -1 -1 1 5 7 14 21 LAND (KM) 2369 2400 2412 2367 2340 2293 2244 2204 2127 2043 1943 1852 1777 1764 1774 1787 1786 LAT (DEG N) 13.5 13.7 13.9 14.0 13.9 13.5 13.2 13.2 13.6 14.2 15.0 15.6 16.4 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 131.9 132.5 132.9 133.3 133.6 134.2 134.8 135.2 135.8 136.4 137.1 137.8 138.3 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 5 5 4 3 3 4 2 2 4 5 5 5 5 6 8 8 8 HEAT CONTENT 15 14 11 9 8 7 6 6 5 5 5 3 1 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 4 CX,CY: -3/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 681 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 27.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 56.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 12. 17. 22. 26. 28. 30. 30. 30. 30. 29. 29. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. -0. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. -0. -3. -9. -16. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -9. -10. -10. -11. -13. -15. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -1. -3. -5. -6. -6. -3. 2. 8. 11. 13. 15. 14. 11. 7. -0. -9. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 13.5 131.9 ** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP902021 INVEST 10/02/21 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 117.2 40.5 to 149.3 0.71 2.5 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 1.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 23.8 -33.0 to 159.5 0.30 1.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 18.2 19.6 to 1.3 0.07 0.2 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 27.4 37.8 to 2.1 0.29 0.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 137.2 800.8 to -82.5 0.75 -1.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 11.4 2.7 to 106.7 0.08 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 25.8 56.6 to 0.0 0.54 0.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.3 2.2 to -2.3 0.56 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 0.4 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 0.5 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 5.3% 4.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.3% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.8% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 1.8% 1.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.3% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP902021 INVEST 10/02/21 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##