* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP902021 10/01/21 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 24 23 21 18 17 20 24 29 34 38 42 42 42 42 41 40 V (KT) LAND 25 24 23 21 18 17 20 24 29 34 38 42 42 42 42 41 40 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 24 22 21 18 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 16 19 19 19 18 17 13 10 9 4 4 3 6 10 11 14 22 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 7 14 14 11 4 -1 -3 -3 0 0 -3 -2 -4 0 5 4 SHEAR DIR 344 348 11 23 19 15 358 4 331 338 12 149 203 212 221 262 267 SST (C) 28.2 28.3 28.4 28.1 27.9 27.7 27.6 27.6 27.6 27.7 27.8 27.7 27.5 27.3 27.2 27.3 27.4 POT. INT. (KT) 144 146 147 144 141 138 137 136 136 138 139 139 136 134 133 134 136 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -52.9 -52.9 -53.3 -53.7 -53.4 -53.5 -53.4 -53.4 -53.3 -53.6 -53.4 -53.8 -53.5 -53.9 -53.9 -54.5 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.1 0.0 0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 2 2 2 2 2 2 3 3 700-500 MB RH 50 47 45 44 44 43 46 50 57 68 72 74 75 73 70 68 69 MODEL VTX (KT) 6 6 6 6 4 4 5 5 6 6 7 7 6 6 7 6 6 850 MB ENV VOR -21 -14 -22 -18 -19 -22 -5 -9 -6 -1 -2 -2 2 9 19 17 4 200 MB DIV 15 38 51 34 20 -21 -7 23 40 51 59 25 16 52 74 70 22 700-850 TADV -1 -1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 -1 -1 -2 -2 -1 0 0 LAND (KM) 2341 2370 2416 2412 2354 2272 2212 2163 2117 2063 1984 1887 1789 1705 1640 1576 1469 LAT (DEG N) 13.0 13.2 13.3 13.6 13.8 13.8 13.5 13.2 13.1 13.2 13.4 13.8 14.0 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 131.0 131.6 132.3 133.0 133.5 134.3 135.0 135.6 136.1 136.6 137.3 138.1 139.0 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 5 6 7 6 5 4 4 3 2 3 4 5 4 3 3 4 6 HEAT CONTENT 11 14 16 12 9 6 6 6 6 7 7 7 5 4 4 4 5 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 4 CX,CY: -3/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 15 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 651 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 29.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 44.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 12. 18. 23. 26. 29. 30. 31. 32. 33. 33. 35. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 0. -2. -3. -3. -2. 0. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -9. -9. -10. -10. -11. -13. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. 1. 0. -0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -5. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -1. -2. -4. -7. -8. -5. -1. 4. 9. 13. 17. 17. 17. 17. 16. 15. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 13.0 131.0 ** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP902021 INVEST 10/01/21 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 119.4 40.5 to 149.3 0.72 2.9 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 1.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 31.6 -33.0 to 159.5 0.34 1.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 18.4 19.6 to 1.3 0.06 0.2 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 29.3 37.8 to 2.1 0.24 0.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 136.0 800.8 to -82.5 0.75 -2.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 12.4 2.7 to 106.7 0.09 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 22.3 56.6 to 0.0 0.61 0.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -2.0 2.2 to -2.3 0.93 0.4 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 0.5 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 0.7 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 6.2% 5.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.1% 0.6% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.5% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 2.3% 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP902021 INVEST 10/01/21 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##