* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP902021 07/30/21 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 30 31 34 37 44 52 58 63 65 66 65 65 61 59 54 50 V (KT) LAND 30 30 31 34 37 44 52 58 63 65 66 65 65 61 59 54 50 V (KT) LGEM 30 30 30 31 31 33 35 39 42 46 49 51 52 52 51 50 46 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 7 6 6 4 10 15 17 19 14 15 14 10 7 12 10 16 15 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 0 1 4 3 0 -6 -8 -6 -4 -4 -2 -3 -5 -2 -2 -3 SHEAR DIR 333 319 347 20 60 72 70 65 58 32 40 36 16 33 359 360 353 SST (C) 28.8 28.7 28.5 28.6 28.7 28.3 27.0 27.7 27.0 26.3 26.6 25.9 26.0 26.1 25.9 25.4 25.6 POT. INT. (KT) 153 152 150 151 152 148 134 142 134 127 129 121 122 123 121 116 118 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -53.0 -52.8 -52.4 -53.0 -53.3 -53.0 -53.2 -52.8 -52.9 -52.6 -52.5 -52.2 -52.3 -52.2 -52.4 -52.1 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.4 TH_E DEV (C) 5 4 4 4 3 3 2 2 2 2 2 1 1 1 2 2 2 700-500 MB RH 72 74 77 79 81 82 83 80 77 73 71 71 72 69 66 64 66 MODEL VTX (KT) 9 9 10 12 12 15 16 16 17 18 19 20 23 23 24 22 21 850 MB ENV VOR -28 -23 -19 -10 -2 14 33 54 71 76 92 98 102 83 88 68 69 200 MB DIV 29 37 65 102 89 79 94 98 111 75 66 70 103 71 93 68 32 700-850 TADV -9 -6 -8 -6 -7 -6 -5 -10 -10 -9 -12 -8 -11 -12 -13 -11 -6 LAND (KM) 996 1040 1094 1174 1223 1283 1394 1528 1630 1749 1880 1965 2038 2131 2233 2155 1975 LAT (DEG N) 11.8 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 110.0 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 11 11 11 12 12 11 11 11 9 10 9 8 7 6 6 8 8 HEAT CONTENT 31 17 11 11 15 11 3 7 8 0 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 547 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 47.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 14.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 11. 17. 21. 24. 26. 27. 27. 26. 26. 26. 26. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. 0. 2. 4. 6. 7. 8. 8. 7. 6. 5. 4. 4. 3. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -10. -10. -11. -12. -14. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 6. 8. 10. 12. 13. 14. 15. 14. 14. 11. 9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. 3. 1. -0. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 4. 7. 14. 22. 28. 33. 35. 36. 35. 35. 31. 30. 24. 20. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 11.8 110.0 ** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP902021 INVEST 07/30/21 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 121.7 40.5 to 149.3 0.75 5.6 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 2.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 64.4 -33.0 to 159.5 0.51 3.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.6 19.6 to 1.3 0.71 4.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 1.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.8 37.8 to 2.1 0.48 2.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 50.0 800.8 to -82.5 0.85 -4.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 17.0 2.7 to 106.7 0.14 0.5 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 1.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.1 2.2 to -2.3 0.51 0.4 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 21% is 1.6 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 7.5% 20.5% 18.2% 17.2% 0.0% 16.4% 14.4% 12.8% Logistic: 1.0% 8.2% 3.2% 1.4% 0.1% 2.5% 3.6% 5.2% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.9% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.9% 9.9% 7.2% 6.2% 0.1% 6.3% 6.0% 6.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 5.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 3.0% 14.0% 18.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP902021 INVEST 07/30/21 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##