* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP902021 07/30/21 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 33 36 39 48 56 63 70 70 71 72 71 69 66 64 59 V (KT) LAND 30 32 33 36 39 48 56 63 70 70 71 72 71 69 66 64 59 V (KT) LGEM 30 32 33 35 36 39 43 46 50 54 57 59 59 59 59 57 52 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 5 7 7 5 1 10 16 18 21 17 15 13 6 7 8 12 11 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 2 1 1 5 2 -4 -8 -9 -6 -3 -3 -4 -4 -5 -4 -6 SHEAR DIR 348 344 335 323 354 71 92 70 72 62 52 54 49 354 18 19 31 SST (C) 28.4 28.8 28.8 28.6 28.6 28.9 27.7 27.1 27.8 26.5 26.3 26.5 26.0 25.5 25.8 25.7 24.8 POT. INT. (KT) 148 153 153 151 151 154 142 136 143 128 125 127 122 117 120 119 109 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -52.7 -53.0 -52.9 -52.5 -53.5 -52.9 -53.3 -52.6 -53.1 -52.5 -52.9 -52.2 -52.5 -51.9 -52.1 -51.8 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.3 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 4 4 3 3 2 2 2 2 1 1 1 2 1 2 700-500 MB RH 69 72 75 77 79 83 84 82 79 77 72 71 72 67 64 61 60 MODEL VTX (KT) 9 9 9 10 11 14 15 16 19 19 20 23 23 24 25 25 23 850 MB ENV VOR -30 -29 -24 -15 -8 4 25 42 63 68 76 66 40 37 29 31 0 200 MB DIV 5 19 32 68 99 54 97 95 106 88 66 65 56 51 49 -9 -27 700-850 TADV -5 -9 -6 -7 -5 -5 -1 -4 -6 -6 -5 -9 -6 -7 -7 -7 -3 LAND (KM) 902 946 990 1045 1111 1200 1284 1415 1559 1684 1775 1830 1852 1919 2026 2116 2188 LAT (DEG N) 11.8 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 108.4 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 10 10 11 12 12 12 11 12 11 9 7 5 6 7 7 7 6 HEAT CONTENT 19 32 29 13 11 18 6 3 14 1 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 600 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 56.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 19.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 11. 17. 22. 25. 26. 27. 27. 27. 27. 26. 26. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 4. 3. 1. -1. -1. -2. -0. 1. 2. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. 1. 3. 4. 6. 7. 7. 7. 7. 6. 4. 4. 3. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -9. -10. -10. -12. -14. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 6. 9. 13. 14. 16. 18. 17. 16. 15. 14. 11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. -0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -4. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 3. 6. 9. 18. 26. 33. 40. 40. 41. 42. 41. 39. 36. 34. 29. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 11.8 108.4 ** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP902021 INVEST 07/30/21 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 121.3 40.5 to 149.3 0.74 5.7 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 3.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 44.6 -33.0 to 159.5 0.40 2.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.3 19.6 to 1.3 0.78 5.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 1.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.9 37.8 to 2.1 0.50 2.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 50.8 800.8 to -82.5 0.85 -4.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 20.8 2.7 to 106.7 0.17 0.7 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 1.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.5 2.2 to -2.3 0.38 0.3 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 21% is 1.7 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 18% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 8.3% 21.3% 19.1% 18.2% 0.0% 18.4% 15.6% 13.0% Logistic: 1.7% 14.8% 6.8% 3.2% 0.4% 6.3% 6.1% 11.7% Bayesian: 0.2% 4.9% 0.8% 0.1% 0.0% 0.3% 0.2% 0.1% Consensus: 3.4% 13.7% 8.9% 7.2% 0.1% 8.3% 7.3% 8.3% DTOPS: 0.0% 5.0% 2.0% 1.0% 1.0% 3.0% 12.0% 33.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP902021 INVEST 07/30/21 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##