* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP902021 07/29/21 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 25 26 27 32 42 53 62 67 67 69 69 70 67 64 64 V (KT) LAND 25 25 25 26 27 32 42 53 62 67 67 69 69 70 67 64 64 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 25 25 25 26 28 31 33 35 37 39 42 45 45 44 44 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 5 7 6 7 5 4 10 15 14 14 13 12 15 8 7 6 13 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 0 -1 -1 1 4 1 -6 -7 -4 -3 -4 -5 -3 -2 -2 -4 SHEAR DIR 327 324 334 342 353 14 95 105 92 92 88 66 66 54 4 356 6 SST (C) 28.5 28.4 28.6 28.9 28.8 28.6 28.8 27.3 27.2 27.3 26.2 26.3 26.6 26.2 26.3 26.3 26.4 POT. INT. (KT) 149 148 150 154 153 152 154 137 136 137 125 125 128 123 124 124 125 200 MB T (C) -53.4 -53.3 -52.9 -53.0 -53.3 -52.8 -53.6 -53.1 -53.4 -52.8 -53.2 -52.7 -53.1 -52.5 -52.7 -52.3 -52.4 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.3 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 5 5 5 4 3 2 2 2 2 2 2 1 1 2 2 700-500 MB RH 64 63 70 73 75 80 83 83 79 76 74 71 69 71 68 67 64 MODEL VTX (KT) 6 7 8 8 8 9 12 14 15 17 16 18 19 22 21 19 21 850 MB ENV VOR -29 -35 -32 -33 -27 -10 5 23 21 50 53 59 50 39 25 17 -6 200 MB DIV 32 20 22 23 38 92 64 96 83 92 72 66 74 46 12 15 21 700-850 TADV -2 -2 -4 -7 -7 -6 -2 0 -4 -3 -3 -3 -4 -3 -5 -3 -5 LAND (KM) 826 872 910 956 1008 1153 1178 1239 1355 1507 1662 1796 1887 1944 2019 2075 2141 LAT (DEG N) 11.7 11.8 12.0 12.1 12.3 12.9 13.9 14.8 15.2 15.3 15.3 15.4 15.5 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 106.9 107.9 108.8 109.8 110.9 113.4 115.9 118.1 120.3 122.6 124.6 126.3 127.6 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 9 9 9 10 11 13 12 11 11 10 9 7 6 4 5 4 5 HEAT CONTENT 14 16 25 34 21 12 18 4 3 14 0 0 2 0 1 1 1 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 597 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 28.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 42.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 4.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. -0. 0. 1. 5. 12. 19. 24. 28. 30. 31. 32. 32. 32. 33. 34. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 5. 6. 5. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. 3. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -1. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -7. -8. -9. -9. -11. -12. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 5. 10. 13. 15. 13. 15. 15. 16. 14. 11. 11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 0. -0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. -7. -6. -5. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -0. 0. 1. 2. 7. 17. 28. 37. 42. 42. 44. 44. 45. 42. 39. 39. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 11.7 106.9 ** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP902021 INVEST 07/29/21 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 126.0 40.5 to 149.3 0.79 3.9 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 1.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 27.0 -33.0 to 159.5 0.31 1.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.8 19.6 to 1.3 0.76 3.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 28.3 37.8 to 2.1 0.27 0.8 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 58.0 800.8 to -82.5 0.84 -2.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 22.0 2.7 to 106.7 0.19 0.5 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 1.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.1 2.2 to -2.3 0.52 0.3 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 1.2 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 18.3% 10.5% 0.0% 0.0% 15.6% 14.7% 0.0% Logistic: 0.7% 5.1% 2.1% 0.8% 0.1% 2.9% 3.3% 7.8% Bayesian: 0.1% 1.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.3% 8.2% 4.2% 0.3% 0.0% 6.2% 6.0% 2.6% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP902021 INVEST 07/29/21 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##