* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP902021 07/29/21 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 27 29 32 36 44 54 64 68 70 70 68 63 65 64 63 V (KT) LAND 25 26 27 29 32 36 44 54 64 68 70 70 68 63 65 64 63 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 26 26 27 27 27 30 33 36 37 37 36 34 33 33 34 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 2 4 4 6 6 8 3 7 12 4 6 10 6 7 5 5 12 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 4 6 2 0 0 3 -2 -4 3 0 1 1 -3 -5 -2 -3 SHEAR DIR 285 323 309 305 317 321 20 122 137 178 223 264 236 283 10 26 57 SST (C) 28.9 28.8 28.6 28.5 28.7 28.6 28.8 28.0 27.3 26.7 26.3 26.4 27.1 27.4 27.8 28.0 27.8 POT. INT. (KT) 153 153 151 150 152 152 154 146 139 133 129 130 136 138 140 139 139 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -53.2 -53.4 -53.3 -52.9 -53.3 -52.8 -53.4 -52.8 -53.2 -52.8 -52.8 -52.4 -52.9 -52.2 -52.8 -52.6 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.3 0.4 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 5 5 4 3 2 2 1 1 2 2 2 2 2 700-500 MB RH 66 66 66 66 72 78 80 82 80 76 72 66 61 64 65 65 70 MODEL VTX (KT) 8 8 8 9 10 10 11 13 16 17 19 20 20 18 20 19 18 850 MB ENV VOR -21 -25 -25 -26 -27 -21 -13 -1 36 45 54 62 72 81 83 66 48 200 MB DIV 59 67 48 57 48 66 113 74 98 61 55 31 54 43 40 1 13 700-850 TADV -1 -5 -5 -4 -5 -8 -6 -2 -5 -10 -5 -8 -5 -8 -5 -5 0 LAND (KM) 739 770 812 850 883 986 1096 1156 1267 1468 1733 2020 2299 2186 2107 2127 2093 LAT (DEG N) 11.7 11.8 11.9 12.1 12.4 12.9 13.8 14.8 15.9 16.3 16.5 16.2 15.5 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 105.0 106.0 107.0 108.0 109.0 111.3 114.0 116.9 119.9 123.1 126.6 130.1 132.9 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 9 10 10 10 11 13 14 15 15 17 16 16 12 9 5 0 4 HEAT CONTENT 29 17 14 18 31 15 16 9 4 5 0 1 5 4 7 8 7 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 15 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 610 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 84.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 16.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -0. -0. 0. 1. 5. 12. 19. 25. 28. 31. 32. 33. 34. 35. 36. 38. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 7. 8. 8. 8. 9. 9. 9. 9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -4. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -6. -5. -4. -3. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -8. -9. -10. -12. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. 1. 2. 1. 2. 5. 10. 12. 14. 15. 13. 9. 11. 9. 7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 2. 2. 0. -0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 4. 7. 11. 19. 29. 39. 43. 45. 45. 43. 38. 40. 39. 38. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 11.7 105.0 ** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP902021 INVEST 07/29/21 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 126.5 40.5 to 149.3 0.79 6.1 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 3.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 55.8 -33.0 to 159.5 0.46 3.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.7 19.6 to 1.3 0.82 5.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.5 37.8 to 2.1 0.60 2.9 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 62.8 800.8 to -82.5 0.84 -4.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 21.8 2.7 to 106.7 0.18 0.8 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 1.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.3 2.2 to -2.3 0.42 0.4 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 22% is 1.8 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 18% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 17% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 22.4% 19.5% 0.0% 0.0% 18.4% 17.4% 0.0% Logistic: 6.1% 30.0% 18.0% 9.7% 1.3% 15.8% 26.0% 32.7% Bayesian: 0.4% 13.1% 3.1% 0.9% 0.1% 0.8% 0.7% 0.2% Consensus: 2.1% 21.8% 13.5% 3.5% 0.5% 11.7% 14.7% 11.0% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP902021 INVEST 07/29/21 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##