* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP902021 05/09/21 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 24 23 22 22 22 21 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 25 24 23 22 22 22 21 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 25 23 22 21 20 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 6 9 16 21 19 20 26 36 37 44 38 36 33 27 17 21 21 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 2 2 6 9 1 4 -2 8 1 1 12 7 11 6 1 -3 SHEAR DIR 233 209 203 214 218 223 242 247 248 249 281 278 284 293 296 285 291 SST (C) 28.8 28.6 28.4 28.3 28.2 27.9 27.5 26.8 25.7 24.7 23.9 23.3 23.1 23.0 23.2 23.8 24.9 POT. INT. (KT) 151 149 146 144 143 140 136 129 118 108 98 91 88 87 89 97 109 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -53.5 -53.7 -53.3 -53.0 -53.6 -53.6 -54.2 -53.9 -54.1 -54.3 -54.4 -54.6 -55.1 -54.9 -54.9 -54.8 200 MB VXT (C) -0.2 -0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 -0.1 0.0 0.3 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 4 3 3 3 3 3 3 2 3 2 5 2 4 2 3 1 3 700-500 MB RH 65 66 65 66 66 66 63 61 55 51 46 47 45 45 42 45 47 MODEL VTX (KT) 9 8 8 8 10 11 10 8 7 5 5 3 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -34 -28 -23 -24 -25 -18 -14 -18 -22 -16 -15 -18 -39 -53 -66 -63 -46 200 MB DIV 48 91 109 117 111 43 42 20 33 -47 -24 -48 -47 -65 -35 -22 4 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 1 5 4 2 5 2 4 0 0 0 LAND (KM) 673 675 655 637 629 610 560 515 431 359 293 276 267 279 269 246 216 LAT (DEG N) 13.3 13.7 14.1 14.4 14.6 15.1 15.7 16.4 17.4 18.4 19.2 19.6 19.9 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 106.9 107.5 107.8 108.0 108.2 108.6 108.6 108.7 108.5 108.4 108.2 108.2 108.2 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 7 6 4 3 3 3 3 5 5 5 3 1 0 0 1 2 3 HEAT CONTENT 18 15 15 14 14 12 9 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 7 CX,CY: -5/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 655 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 69.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 4.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. SST POTENTIAL -0. -0. 0. 2. 6. 12. 17. 22. 25. 26. 26. 24. 22. 19. 18. 17. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 0. -5. -12. -19. -25. -29. -31. -30. -30. -32. -32. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -10. -11. -11. -11. -10. -9. -8. -6. -5. -4. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -2. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. -8. -8. -9. -10. -10. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -0. 1. 2. 2. -1. -2. -5. -6. -8. -8. -8. -7. -7. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 4. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -8. -13. -22. -28. -34. -37. -38. -38. -42. -43. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 13.3 106.9 ** 2020 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP902021 INVEST 05/09/21 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 121.6 40.5 to 149.3 0.75 5.9 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.26 2.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.0 19.6 to 1.4 0.31 2.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 95.2 -33.0 to 160.6 0.66 5.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.6 37.8 to 2.1 0.51 2.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 15.2 2.7 to 106.7 0.12 0.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 77.6 800.8 to -82.5 0.82 -4.8 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 2.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.8 2.2 to -1.9 0.11 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 1.4 times climatological mean (12.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 17.1% 16.1% 0.0% 0.0% 13.5% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.5% 1.9% 0.9% 0.2% 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 0.2% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.2% 6.3% 5.7% 0.1% 0.0% 4.6% 0.0% 0.1% DTOPS: 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 10.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP902021 INVEST 05/09/21 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##