* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP902021 05/08/21 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 23 21 20 19 19 20 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 25 23 21 20 19 19 20 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 25 23 22 20 19 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 5 7 11 18 22 16 24 28 38 40 40 31 34 29 32 22 22 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 3 3 2 4 4 3 3 4 3 0 4 7 1 -1 0 -3 SHEAR DIR 224 224 208 213 226 215 239 250 245 251 270 287 277 292 309 326 320 SST (C) 29.0 28.7 28.5 28.4 28.3 28.0 27.6 27.2 26.2 25.0 24.4 24.3 24.5 24.5 24.9 25.4 25.7 POT. INT. (KT) 154 150 147 146 144 141 137 133 124 111 104 101 104 103 108 113 117 200 MB T (C) -53.4 -53.3 -53.6 -53.9 -53.5 -53.6 -53.8 -54.0 -54.5 -54.2 -54.7 -54.8 -54.5 -54.8 -55.0 -54.9 -54.8 200 MB VXT (C) -0.2 -0.2 -0.1 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 0.2 0.1 -0.2 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 3 3 3 2 2 3 3 3 5 3 5 3 4 3 4 700-500 MB RH 62 64 65 64 65 66 64 58 55 48 48 43 44 45 46 47 48 MODEL VTX (KT) 8 8 7 8 7 8 9 8 6 5 3 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -38 -34 -30 -28 -25 -18 -24 -29 -31 -32 -29 -20 -48 -54 -63 -60 -49 200 MB DIV 50 53 96 91 92 51 26 33 35 9 -47 -41 -44 -7 -28 -16 -30 700-850 TADV 0 0 -1 0 0 -1 2 0 4 1 4 0 6 1 1 0 0 LAND (KM) 689 697 688 665 648 627 584 552 465 376 284 237 213 206 190 183 159 LAT (DEG N) 12.9 13.3 13.7 14.1 14.4 14.9 15.5 16.0 17.0 18.0 18.9 19.4 19.7 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 106.5 107.3 107.7 108.0 108.2 108.6 108.7 108.8 108.6 108.3 107.9 107.7 107.6 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 9 7 5 4 4 3 3 3 6 5 4 2 2 1 2 2 3 HEAT CONTENT 21 17 16 16 15 13 10 6 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 673 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 28.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 52.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. SST POTENTIAL -0. -0. 0. 1. 6. 12. 18. 22. 25. 27. 27. 26. 25. 24. 23. 23. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 1. -2. -9. -15. -21. -24. -26. -27. -28. -31. -31. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -1. -2. -3. -6. -8. -10. -11. -12. -12. -11. -10. -8. -7. -6. -5. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -2. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -7. -8. -8. -8. -8. -8. -9. -9. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. -0. -2. -5. -7. -8. -7. -7. -6. -5. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -5. -7. -11. -18. -25. -29. -31. -31. -32. -35. -36. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 12.9 106.5 ** 2020 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP902021 INVEST 05/08/21 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 123.4 40.5 to 149.3 0.76 3.9 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.26 1.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.7 19.6 to 1.4 0.38 1.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 76.4 -33.0 to 160.6 0.57 2.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 28.6 37.8 to 2.1 0.26 0.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 17.0 2.7 to 106.7 0.14 0.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 80.6 800.8 to -82.5 0.82 -3.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 1.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.8 2.2 to -1.9 0.09 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.0 times climatological mean (12.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 16.1% 9.7% 0.0% 0.0% 12.3% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.5% 1.5% 0.6% 0.2% 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 0.2% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.2% 5.9% 3.4% 0.1% 0.0% 4.2% 0.0% 0.1% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 8.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP902021 INVEST 05/08/21 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##