* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP902021 05/07/21 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 27 29 32 36 42 46 49 44 41 37 34 36 38 38 38 V (KT) LAND 25 26 27 29 32 36 42 46 49 44 41 37 34 36 38 38 38 V (KT) LGEM 25 27 29 30 31 33 33 31 27 22 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 6 6 3 2 0 7 15 15 19 21 20 22 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 3 4 3 3 0 1 5 4 8 9 9 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 50 40 42 38 166 191 214 212 250 252 244 264 279 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 30.1 30.1 29.9 29.7 29.5 29.3 28.9 28.7 28.2 28.0 27.7 27.3 26.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 165 166 164 162 159 156 151 149 143 141 138 134 129 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -54.1 -53.8 -53.8 -53.9 -53.6 -53.5 -53.6 -53.5 -53.4 -53.8 -53.8 -53.8 -53.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 5 5 5 4 3 3 2 3 3 4 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 65 65 65 64 65 67 69 68 68 63 54 46 46 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 7 7 7 7 9 8 9 10 11 10 9 7 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -20 -24 -30 -36 -38 -38 -36 -28 -27 -32 -38 -38 -37 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 85 91 71 64 59 56 87 55 24 35 7 -37 -42 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 2 0 -3 -1 0 -1 0 0 1 1 2 0 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 684 721 761 772 795 798 774 751 725 753 816 883 926 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 11.2 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 102.5 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 8 9 9 10 8 6 5 4 3 3 4 3 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 43 55 64 51 33 26 27 26 19 18 14 8 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 6 CX,CY: -5/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 547 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 24.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 59.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 10.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. SST POTENTIAL -1. -1. -1. -0. 5. 12. 19. 25. 29. 31. 34. 35. 37. 39. 40. 43. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 5. 4. 2. -0. -2. -3. -2. -2. -3. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 0. -1. -4. -5. -7. -8. -8. -7. -6. -6. -5. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. -8. -8. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 5. 3. 2. -0. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 4. 7. 11. 17. 22. 24. 19. 16. 12. 9. 11. 13. 13. 13. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 11.2 102.5 ** 2020 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP902021 INVEST 05/07/21 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 138.2 40.5 to 149.3 0.90 9.5 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 5.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 3.6 19.6 to 1.4 0.88 8.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 74.0 -33.0 to 160.6 0.55 5.5 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 24.9 37.8 to 2.1 0.36 2.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 49.2 2.7 to 106.7 0.45 2.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 66.8 800.8 to -82.5 0.83 -6.5 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 2.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.1 2.2 to -1.9 0.55 0.4 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 31% is 2.5 times climatological mean (12.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 31% is 3.6 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 26% is 4.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 27% is 4.6 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 31.0% 30.5% 0.0% 0.0% 26.5% 27.0% 0.0% Logistic: 4.8% 32.8% 26.7% 13.7% 1.1% 26.6% 15.1% 16.0% Bayesian: 8.8% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 2.3% 0.2% Consensus: 4.5% 21.3% 19.1% 4.6% 0.4% 17.7% 14.8% 5.4% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP902021 INVEST 05/07/21 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##