* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP902021 05/07/21 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 20 21 21 21 21 25 31 36 36 32 23 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 20 21 21 21 21 25 31 36 36 32 23 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 20 20 21 21 21 21 19 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 6 2 2 5 8 12 20 26 31 35 43 45 48 43 44 34 41 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 5 5 5 2 0 -1 5 7 5 0 6 2 0 5 10 -1 SHEAR DIR 79 95 165 228 234 222 208 205 227 223 226 228 246 258 257 261 256 SST (C) 30.1 30.1 29.9 29.5 29.2 28.6 27.9 27.1 26.3 25.1 24.3 25.2 26.3 24.7 23.8 23.7 23.6 POT. INT. (KT) 165 166 163 159 156 149 141 132 124 112 104 114 125 108 97 94 94 200 MB T (C) -54.3 -54.2 -53.7 -53.8 -53.9 -53.7 -53.9 -53.6 -53.9 -53.6 -54.5 -54.4 -54.7 -54.4 -55.0 -54.6 -54.9 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.1 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 5 6 6 5 4 4 2 2 1 2 2 5 2 6 3 6 3 700-500 MB RH 67 66 66 66 66 65 66 64 63 59 55 50 52 48 51 51 54 MODEL VTX (KT) 6 7 7 8 8 9 9 10 10 10 9 7 6 4 3 2 LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -21 -22 -27 -35 -30 -31 -24 -26 -15 -8 -10 -2 1 -11 -4 -22 0 200 MB DIV 77 93 97 59 59 84 83 99 59 67 37 35 33 35 15 0 -4 700-850 TADV 1 1 -2 -4 -1 -1 0 0 0 1 1 -1 0 0 4 3 3 LAND (KM) 581 576 573 571 552 545 523 499 473 393 290 167 83 -29 -93 -125 -140 LAT (DEG N) 12.0 12.4 12.8 13.1 13.6 14.5 15.3 16.1 16.9 18.0 19.1 20.4 21.6 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 102.0 102.8 103.6 104.4 105.2 106.6 107.5 108.2 108.6 108.5 108.1 107.3 106.4 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 8 9 9 9 9 7 6 4 5 6 7 7 7 5 2 1 1 HEAT CONTENT 49 58 54 42 28 16 10 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 8 CX,CY: -6/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 485 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 27.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 60.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 8.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -2. -1. 4. 12. 20. 26. 30. 32. 33. 34. 33. 32. 31. 30. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 3. -2. -7. -14. -19. -24. -28. -31. -37. -40. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 0. -0. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -6. -6. -5. -3. -3. -2. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -8. -7. -8. -8. -9. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 6. 3. 1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 1. 1. 1. 5. 11. 16. 16. 12. 3. -3. -11. -16. -23. -30. -35. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 12.0 102.0 ** 2020 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP902021 INVEST 05/07/21 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 142.1 40.5 to 149.3 0.93 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.5 19.6 to 1.4 0.83 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 77.0 -33.0 to 160.6 0.57 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 20.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 27.5 37.8 to 2.1 0.29 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 46.2 2.7 to 106.7 0.42 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 52.0 800.8 to -82.5 0.85 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.8 2.2 to -1.9 0.73 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 4.2% 22.5% 16.9% 6.4% 0.6% 9.1% 3.8% 2.5% Bayesian: 3.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% Consensus: 2.5% 7.5% 5.6% 2.1% 0.2% 3.0% 1.3% 0.8% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP902021 INVEST 05/07/21 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##