* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP902020 09/05/20 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 26 27 28 33 39 43 47 49 50 52 53 54 55 55 57 V (KT) LAND 25 26 26 27 28 33 39 43 47 49 50 52 53 54 55 55 57 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 25 25 25 26 26 27 29 31 34 37 39 40 40 40 40 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 21 23 22 24 28 25 16 13 14 12 15 15 19 22 18 16 18 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -2 2 2 -1 -6 1 0 -3 -5 -2 -2 0 0 0 -1 -1 SHEAR DIR 56 54 63 70 77 86 91 83 100 119 133 159 151 159 157 154 144 SST (C) 29.7 29.7 30.1 30.1 29.8 29.2 28.5 28.7 28.9 28.5 28.4 28.1 27.4 28.0 28.5 28.5 28.3 POT. INT. (KT) 162 162 167 167 163 157 149 150 150 145 142 142 136 143 149 148 146 200 MB T (C) -52.3 -52.5 -52.8 -52.7 -52.5 -53.0 -52.7 -53.0 -52.7 -53.1 -52.7 -53.1 -52.7 -53.0 -52.6 -52.9 -52.4 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 8 6 5 6 8 6 9 7 10 8 11 8 9 7 7 6 5 700-500 MB RH 77 79 82 82 81 82 78 78 73 73 70 69 65 66 63 65 64 MODEL VTX (KT) 4 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 50 47 53 55 37 29 -5 26 49 39 52 35 34 32 35 51 58 200 MB DIV 49 69 87 73 50 37 52 10 39 18 54 37 53 67 71 76 64 700-850 TADV -3 -6 3 2 0 0 -4 0 0 0 1 0 1 3 2 2 2 LAND (KM) 146 146 144 141 130 124 161 176 204 230 232 256 331 460 540 637 762 LAT (DEG N) 14.5 14.7 15.1 15.6 16.1 16.9 17.6 18.3 18.8 18.8 18.9 18.8 18.7 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 97.0 98.2 99.2 100.3 101.2 103.0 104.8 106.2 106.9 107.2 107.3 107.5 108.3 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 10 11 11 11 10 9 9 6 2 1 0 3 5 7 8 7 6 HEAT CONTENT 27 27 29 34 30 22 17 31 31 21 19 12 4 8 13 14 13 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 572 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 52.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -1. 4. 12. 19. 25. 29. 32. 34. 36. 38. 39. 41. 43. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. -2. -5. -8. -10. -11. -11. -11. -12. -12. -14. -14. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 1. 2. 3. 8. 14. 18. 22. 24. 25. 27. 28. 29. 30. 30. 32. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 14.5 97.0 ** 2020 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP902020 INVEST 09/05/20 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 139.1 40.5 to 149.3 0.91 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 23.8 19.6 to 1.4 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 65.6 -33.0 to 160.6 0.51 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.1 37.8 to 2.1 0.55 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 29.4 2.7 to 106.7 0.26 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 29.2 800.8 to -82.5 0.87 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.3 2.2 to -1.9 0.85 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.2% 1.6% 0.4% 0.2% 0.1% 0.4% 2.0% 5.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.4% Consensus: 0.1% 0.6% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.7% 1.8% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% 4.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP902020 INVEST 09/05/20 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##