* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP902020 09/04/20 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 26 27 28 33 38 43 48 51 53 55 58 59 59 59 60 V (KT) LAND 25 26 26 27 28 33 38 43 48 51 53 55 58 59 59 59 60 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 25 25 26 27 27 28 30 33 36 40 43 47 48 49 49 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 15 19 21 20 21 27 16 14 12 13 12 13 11 18 16 17 17 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -2 -2 1 4 -3 -1 0 0 -5 -6 -3 -1 -1 0 0 0 SHEAR DIR 61 58 57 57 65 78 93 75 86 108 137 149 174 152 178 168 178 SST (C) 29.2 29.6 29.6 29.9 30.2 29.7 29.2 28.5 28.5 28.7 29.0 29.1 28.7 27.4 27.8 28.4 28.8 POT. INT. (KT) 156 161 161 165 168 162 156 148 146 147 150 151 149 136 141 148 151 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -52.3 -52.6 -52.8 -52.7 -52.7 -53.0 -52.9 -53.0 -52.9 -53.0 -52.8 -52.9 -52.6 -52.8 -52.6 -52.5 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 6 4 6 6 8 7 9 9 10 9 9 8 8 7 6 700-500 MB RH 74 79 81 82 81 81 78 78 77 75 72 73 68 70 65 66 64 MODEL VTX (KT) 5 3 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 49 54 52 51 52 30 15 -4 24 34 27 46 32 30 34 50 54 200 MB DIV 50 58 68 88 80 61 46 30 24 39 24 69 47 73 64 82 82 700-850 TADV 2 -1 -4 3 3 0 0 -3 0 0 -1 0 0 0 2 0 1 LAND (KM) 183 157 153 133 131 119 119 161 158 168 165 170 215 304 434 457 534 LAT (DEG N) 14.2 14.3 14.5 14.9 15.4 16.3 17.0 17.6 18.1 18.3 18.6 18.8 18.9 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 95.5 96.4 97.4 98.5 99.6 101.4 103.2 104.8 105.7 106.1 106.3 106.5 107.1 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 8 9 11 12 11 10 9 7 3 1 2 1 4 6 8 8 7 HEAT CONTENT 19 24 28 27 32 29 22 17 22 30 37 40 26 4 6 12 15 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):260/ 7 CX,CY: -6/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 645 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 48.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -0. 4. 12. 19. 25. 29. 32. 35. 38. 39. 41. 42. 45. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. -1. -4. -6. -8. -9. -9. -8. -8. -8. -10. -11. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 5. 4. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. GOES PREDICTORS -0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -5. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 1. 2. 3. 8. 13. 18. 23. 26. 28. 30. 33. 34. 34. 34. 35. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 14.2 95.5 ** 2020 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP902020 INVEST 09/04/20 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 137.0 40.5 to 149.3 0.89 6.8 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 3.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 19.1 19.6 to 1.4 0.03 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 68.8 -33.0 to 160.6 0.53 3.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.5 37.8 to 2.1 0.57 2.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 26.0 2.7 to 106.7 0.22 1.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 27.4 800.8 to -82.5 0.88 -5.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 1.9 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.4 2.2 to -1.9 0.88 0.5 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 1.5 times climatological mean (12.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 18.8% 15.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.2% 1.9% 0.6% 0.3% 0.1% 0.7% 4.0% 9.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.6% Consensus: 0.1% 7.0% 5.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.2% 1.4% 3.2% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 2.0% 1.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP902020 INVEST 09/04/20 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##