* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP902020 07/19/20 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 30 32 35 44 54 64 72 78 81 85 84 81 76 71 66 V (KT) LAND 25 27 30 32 35 44 54 64 72 78 81 85 84 81 76 71 66 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 26 27 27 30 34 39 45 52 59 65 67 63 56 48 41 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 17 13 10 14 15 5 4 4 3 4 4 4 2 4 7 12 17 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 0 0 0 0 -3 0 -2 -2 -5 -3 0 2 5 3 4 1 SHEAR DIR 360 23 31 40 52 78 13 83 10 80 77 94 136 205 253 265 272 SST (C) 29.1 28.6 28.6 28.7 28.5 28.4 28.4 28.6 28.2 28.1 28.0 27.6 26.3 26.4 25.7 25.4 25.3 POT. INT. (KT) 156 151 150 151 150 149 149 151 147 146 146 142 128 129 121 118 117 200 MB T (C) -53.4 -53.4 -53.8 -54.2 -54.2 -54.3 -54.7 -54.5 -54.5 -54.4 -54.3 -54.0 -54.2 -53.8 -53.9 -53.8 -54.0 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.1 -0.2 -0.3 -0.4 -0.4 -0.4 -0.1 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.2 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 6 6 5 5 5 5 5 5 3 3 3 4 4 700-500 MB RH 64 64 66 67 64 64 68 70 71 71 67 63 57 53 47 44 39 MODEL VTX (KT) 3 3 3 4 4 6 8 10 11 12 13 14 13 12 11 9 8 850 MB ENV VOR -20 -13 -3 -7 -8 10 25 40 49 40 11 -6 -27 -28 -25 -18 -21 200 MB DIV 19 29 33 39 44 35 11 19 6 21 -8 12 10 8 -19 -23 -23 700-850 TADV 2 2 2 3 8 0 0 1 -2 -1 2 5 4 5 5 0 0 LAND (KM) 1245 1324 1404 1489 1585 1812 2074 2307 2491 2537 2267 1956 1642 1328 1036 747 471 LAT (DEG N) 15.0 15.0 14.8 14.5 14.1 13.0 11.7 10.9 10.7 11.3 12.2 13.6 14.9 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 118.4 119.5 120.5 121.4 122.3 124.2 126.3 128.5 130.6 132.7 135.0 137.5 140.1 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 11 10 10 9 10 11 12 11 10 11 13 14 14 13 13 13 13 HEAT CONTENT 20 17 18 19 17 12 12 16 12 13 13 10 0 1 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 547 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 92.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 12.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. SST POTENTIAL -0. -0. 0. 1. 6. 12. 18. 24. 28. 31. 33. 35. 35. 36. 36. 36. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. 6. 6. 8. 9. 10. 10. 9. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 9. 9. 9. 7. 5. 3. 2. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 5. 9. 11. 13. 14. 14. 12. 10. 8. 6. 4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 7. 11. 19. 29. 39. 47. 53. 56. 60. 59. 56. 51. 46. 41. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 15.0 118.4 ** 2020 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP902020 INVEST 07/19/20 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 126.6 40.5 to 149.3 0.79 6.6 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 3.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.8 19.6 to 1.4 0.32 2.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 32.8 -33.0 to 160.6 0.34 2.7 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.0 37.8 to 2.1 0.81 4.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 18.2 2.7 to 106.7 0.15 0.7 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 113.6 800.8 to -82.5 0.78 -4.8 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 2.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.6 2.2 to -1.9 0.69 0.4 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 22% is 1.7 times climatological mean (12.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 19% is 3.2 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 21.7% 17.8% 0.0% 0.0% 17.5% 19.0% 0.0% Logistic: 3.9% 13.1% 5.3% 2.4% 1.2% 4.6% 6.8% 28.5% Bayesian: 0.1% 2.5% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.4% 0.8% 0.0% Consensus: 1.4% 12.4% 7.7% 0.8% 0.4% 7.5% 8.9% 9.5% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP902020 INVEST 07/19/20 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##