* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP902020 07/19/20 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 28 29 32 39 49 60 68 73 76 80 80 78 74 71 68 V (KT) LAND 25 26 28 29 32 39 49 60 68 73 76 80 80 78 74 71 68 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 25 25 26 27 30 35 40 45 50 55 58 56 52 48 43 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 20 18 13 10 13 8 3 4 4 8 4 6 3 2 2 7 13 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 2 0 1 2 -2 -1 0 -1 -5 -3 -2 0 4 3 0 -1 SHEAR DIR 345 358 15 16 24 73 9 88 152 110 104 111 92 177 183 211 247 SST (C) 29.1 29.1 28.8 28.5 28.6 28.4 28.5 28.5 28.5 28.2 28.0 27.5 26.2 26.3 25.7 25.2 25.8 POT. INT. (KT) 155 156 152 149 150 149 150 150 150 147 146 141 128 129 122 117 123 200 MB T (C) -53.4 -53.4 -53.4 -53.8 -54.2 -54.2 -54.5 -54.3 -54.6 -54.4 -54.4 -53.9 -54.1 -53.9 -53.8 -53.8 -53.8 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0 -0.3 -0.3 -0.4 -0.3 -0.3 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.4 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 5 5 6 5 6 5 5 5 5 4 3 3 4 4 700-500 MB RH 67 65 65 67 68 65 67 67 71 72 69 64 60 55 52 49 44 MODEL VTX (KT) 2 2 3 3 3 5 7 9 11 12 12 13 13 12 10 10 8 850 MB ENV VOR -36 -27 -17 -12 -10 -1 13 27 45 49 26 5 -6 -21 -23 -22 -22 200 MB DIV 9 17 36 27 47 52 32 1 6 18 18 9 13 -10 -6 -18 -25 700-850 TADV 1 3 3 3 4 4 -1 0 1 -3 0 3 0 -4 0 0 0 LAND (KM) 1115 1176 1259 1336 1419 1623 1858 2104 2325 2485 2344 2022 1672 1324 969 623 305 LAT (DEG N) 15.2 15.3 15.2 15.0 14.7 13.9 12.8 11.9 11.5 11.8 12.5 13.7 14.9 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 116.8 117.8 118.8 119.7 120.6 122.6 124.6 126.9 129.3 131.6 134.1 136.8 139.8 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 9 10 9 9 10 11 12 12 11 12 14 15 16 16 16 15 15 HEAT CONTENT 20 20 18 17 19 16 12 12 13 14 12 8 0 1 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 621 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 78.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 9.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. SST POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. 1. 5. 12. 18. 24. 28. 31. 33. 35. 36. 36. 36. 37. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 9. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. 0. 0. 0. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 1. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 5. 9. 12. 14. 14. 15. 13. 11. 8. 7. 5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 4. 7. 14. 24. 35. 43. 48. 51. 55. 55. 53. 49. 46. 43. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 15.2 116.8 ** 2020 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP902020 INVEST 07/19/20 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 127.6 40.5 to 149.3 0.80 6.1 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 3.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.8 19.6 to 1.4 0.26 1.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 27.2 -33.0 to 160.6 0.31 2.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.8 37.8 to 2.1 0.67 3.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 18.8 2.7 to 106.7 0.15 0.7 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 107.0 800.8 to -82.5 0.79 -4.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 3.0 56.6 to 0.0 0.95 1.8 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.8 2.2 to -1.9 0.72 0.4 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 1.4 times climatological mean (12.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 18% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 18.1% 15.1% 0.0% 0.0% 15.1% 17.7% 0.0% Logistic: 1.1% 6.5% 2.2% 1.0% 0.3% 1.6% 2.6% 15.3% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.2% 0.1% Consensus: 0.4% 8.4% 5.8% 0.3% 0.1% 5.6% 6.8% 5.1% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP902020 INVEST 07/19/20 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##