* EAST PACIFIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP902020 04/24/20 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 33 36 40 43 46 45 37 29 18 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 30 33 36 40 43 46 45 37 29 18 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGEM 30 32 33 33 33 32 29 25 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 12 8 3 4 4 10 16 23 29 34 38 29 32 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 5 7 8 9 1 1 6 3 0 -2 4 -1 SHEAR DIR 217 218 199 136 174 243 257 264 258 253 272 275 288 SST (C) 29.0 29.0 28.9 28.6 28.2 27.6 27.0 26.1 24.6 23.5 23.2 22.9 22.4 POT. INT. (KT) 153 153 152 149 145 139 132 123 107 95 92 90 84 200 MB T (C) -53.1 -53.4 -53.3 -52.8 -53.2 -53.1 -53.2 -53.3 -53.3 -53.9 -54.1 -54.8 -54.7 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.2 -0.2 0.1 0.3 0.0 0.4 0.3 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 3 3 3 3 3 3 2 1 0 1 1 1 0 700-500 MB RH 65 63 62 60 57 55 54 50 51 45 41 34 31 MODEL VTX (KT) 9 9 8 8 8 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 850 MB ENV VOR -4 -9 -12 -19 -26 -39 -43 -47 -32 -25 -35 -55 -50 200 MB DIV 191 173 140 113 89 -4 -9 0 7 -6 -20 -16 -26 700-850 TADV 0 -4 -6 -4 0 0 2 -1 7 10 9 15 15 LAND (KM) 1312 1320 1338 1322 1294 1235 1192 1175 1144 1161 1191 1218 1200 LAT (DEG N) 11.0 11.3 11.6 12.0 12.5 13.6 14.7 15.7 16.7 17.3 17.9 18.7 19.7 LONG(DEG W) 113.6 114.0 114.5 115.0 115.5 116.4 117.3 118.2 119.1 120.1 121.1 122.1 122.8 STM SPEED (KT) 6 5 6 7 7 7 7 7 6 6 6 7 6 HEAT CONTENT 57 51 44 38 30 13 5 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 6 CX,CY: -4/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 587 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 42.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 11. 16. 19. 21. 21. 20. 18. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 2. -1. -6. -11. -14. -16. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -1. -2. -2. -5. -8. -10. -11. -12. -12. -12. -11. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -8. -10. -11. -11. -12. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 3. 3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 1. 3. 5. 7. 11. 10. 6. 2. -1. -4. -5. -6. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 10. 13. 16. 15. 7. -1. -12. -23. -30. -36. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 11.0 113.6 ** 2019 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP902020 INVEST 04/24/20 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 120.3 40.5 to 149.3 0.73 7.6 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 6.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.2 19.6 to 1.6 0.74 9.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 141.2 -33.0 to 156.2 0.92 9.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 2.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 44.0 2.7 to 106.7 0.40 3.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.9 37.8 to 2.1 0.75 6.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 146.8 800.8 to -82.5 0.74 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.4 2.2 to -1.9 0.45 0.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 7.1 62.3 to 0.0 0.89 -0.3 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 19% is 3.2 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 62% is 4.9 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 44% is 5.3 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 32% is 5.3 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 34% is 5.2 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 23% is 3.9 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 19.2% 61.8% 44.4% 31.6% 0.0% 33.9% 22.8% 0.0% Logistic: 24.4% 61.3% 69.3% 33.0% 7.8% 5.7% 0.1% 1.0% Bayesian: 9.4% 28.6% 34.0% 16.7% 1.0% 4.7% 2.1% 0.0% Consensus: 17.7% 50.5% 49.2% 27.1% 2.9% 14.7% 8.4% 0.3% DTOPS: 1.0% 4.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 1.0% 3.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP902020 INVEST 04/24/20 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##