* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP942021 11/06/21 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 31 31 30 30 28 26 23 21 21 22 24 26 28 29 27 25 V (KT) LAND 30 31 31 30 30 28 26 23 21 21 22 24 26 28 29 27 25 V (KT) LGEM 30 30 29 28 27 23 20 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 13 16 17 20 21 20 22 21 29 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 7 9 8 4 3 5 2 15 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 229 230 224 229 225 218 218 215 210 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.6 28.5 28.4 28.3 28.2 28.0 27.8 27.6 27.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 149 148 147 146 146 144 141 139 134 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -54.2 -54.0 -53.8 -54.0 -54.2 -54.2 -54.4 -54.1 -54.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 -0.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 5 4 3 3 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 58 56 55 54 57 63 66 66 61 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 12 12 12 11 11 11 10 10 9 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -11 -15 -22 -22 -30 -35 -33 -38 -35 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 62 54 49 60 29 49 16 -10 -14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -1 -4 -4 -4 -3 -1 0 -1 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 881 916 955 996 1020 1022 1055 1106 1186 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 13.3 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 110.3 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 7 7 7 7 8 8 7 7 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 14 12 11 10 9 8 9 12 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 7 CX,CY: -5/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 678 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 6.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 11. 16. 21. 24. 26. 28. 29. 30. 31. 33. 34. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -1. -5. -9. -12. -13. -14. -14. -14. -14. -15. -16. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. -2. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -10. -11. -12. -12. -12. -12. -11. -10. -9. -8. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -6. -7. -7. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. GOES PREDICTORS 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 1. 1. 0. -2. -4. -7. -9. -9. -8. -6. -4. -2. -1. -3. -5. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 13.3 110.3 ** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP942021 INVEST 11/06/21 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 117.4 40.5 to 149.3 0.71 4.6 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 2.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 50.8 -33.0 to 159.5 0.44 2.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 17.4 19.6 to 1.3 0.12 0.7 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 1.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.1 37.8 to 2.1 0.78 3.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 151.0 800.8 to -82.5 0.74 -3.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 11.2 2.7 to 106.7 0.08 0.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 1.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.9 2.2 to -2.3 0.29 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 0.9 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.3 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.9% 16.1% 12.9% 11.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 5.1% 11.1% 4.9% 3.1% 0.4% 2.6% 1.4% 1.4% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.7% 9.2% 6.0% 4.7% 0.1% 0.9% 0.5% 0.5% DTOPS: 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP942021 INVEST 11/06/21 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##