* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP942021 11/06/21 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 30 29 28 27 24 23 21 19 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 30 30 29 28 27 24 23 21 19 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 30 30 29 28 26 23 19 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 11 12 14 15 19 24 23 25 28 37 38 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 7 8 9 8 3 4 3 8 11 6 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 233 226 226 222 225 225 219 219 203 203 208 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.8 28.7 28.5 28.4 28.2 28.0 27.9 27.5 27.0 27.1 27.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 152 151 148 147 146 144 142 138 134 135 134 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -54.1 -54.2 -54.1 -54.0 -54.2 -54.3 -54.7 -54.7 -54.6 -54.5 -54.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.2 -0.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 5 5 5 4 3 3 3 3 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 59 58 57 58 57 62 67 66 64 57 49 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 11 11 10 10 11 10 10 9 8 7 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -21 -17 -22 -24 -27 -34 -25 -35 -26 -20 -12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 80 73 64 65 59 40 43 -2 -7 -13 -1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -1 -2 -4 -4 -3 -3 0 -2 -2 -1 -6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 843 880 923 970 1021 1037 1057 1093 1183 1318 1490 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 13.2 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 109.6 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 8 7 7 7 8 9 7 8 9 9 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 15 14 12 10 9 8 9 8 7 5 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 7 CX,CY: -5/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 646 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 83.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 2.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 11. 16. 21. 24. 26. 27. 28. 29. 30. 31. 33. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. -1. -5. -9. -14. -19. -20. -20. -20. -20. -22. -22. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -9. -10. -11. -11. -12. -12. -12. -11. -10. -9. -8. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -7. -8. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -0. -0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -5. -5. -4. -4. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -2. -1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 0. -1. -2. -3. -6. -7. -9. -11. -14. -19. -17. -15. -13. -12. -14. -15. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 13.2 109.6 ** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP942021 INVEST 11/06/21 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 118.6 40.5 to 149.3 0.72 4.8 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 2.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 68.2 -33.0 to 159.5 0.53 3.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.2 19.6 to 1.3 0.29 1.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 1.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.3 37.8 to 2.1 0.52 2.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 136.2 800.8 to -82.5 0.75 -3.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 12.0 2.7 to 106.7 0.09 0.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 1.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.6 2.2 to -2.3 0.35 0.3 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 0.9 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.3 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.8% 15.7% 14.0% 12.6% 0.0% 11.4% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 3.2% 8.3% 4.9% 2.6% 0.2% 1.7% 1.0% 1.0% Bayesian: 0.3% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.1% 8.1% 6.3% 5.1% 0.1% 4.4% 0.3% 0.3% DTOPS: 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP942021 INVEST 11/06/21 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##