* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP942021 11/06/21 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 30 29 28 26 23 22 20 19 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 30 30 29 28 26 23 22 20 19 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 30 31 31 30 29 25 21 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 11 11 14 16 18 23 24 28 25 32 38 34 30 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 10 9 8 8 8 2 4 3 12 8 5 5 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 227 234 231 231 227 229 219 219 213 205 208 210 214 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.8 28.8 28.7 28.6 28.4 28.2 28.0 27.4 27.2 26.9 26.7 26.7 26.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 151 151 150 150 148 146 144 137 135 133 132 132 131 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -54.0 -54.2 -54.3 -54.2 -54.0 -54.3 -54.4 -54.8 -54.5 -54.6 -54.6 -54.7 -54.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.3 -0.1 -0.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 5 5 3 3 3 3 3 4 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 60 59 59 58 58 60 66 66 64 61 52 51 55 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 12 12 11 11 11 10 10 9 8 8 7 6 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -17 -24 -20 -22 -23 -34 -31 -25 -35 -28 -17 -15 -20 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 73 70 75 64 55 21 55 20 15 -21 -17 -7 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -2 -1 -1 -4 -4 -5 0 -1 -1 0 -4 -2 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 819 844 873 908 949 1018 1036 1055 1136 1244 1429 1684 1989 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 13.2 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 109.2 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 7 5 7 8 8 9 8 7 8 11 13 13 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 14 15 15 13 11 9 9 7 11 3 6 3 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 8 CX,CY: -6/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 692 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 26.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 11. 17. 21. 24. 26. 27. 28. 29. 29. 30. 32. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. -1. -5. -9. -13. -18. -21. -22. -21. -21. -23. -24. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -2. -3. -4. -7. -9. -11. -12. -12. -12. -12. -12. -11. -10. -9. -8. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -7. -8. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. -7. -6. -5. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 0. -1. -2. -4. -7. -8. -10. -11. -14. -17. -20. -20. -18. -16. -18. -19. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 13.2 109.2 ** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP942021 INVEST 11/06/21 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 119.9 40.5 to 149.3 0.73 4.8 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 3.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 67.4 -33.0 to 159.5 0.52 3.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.1 19.6 to 1.3 0.30 1.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 1.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 26.7 37.8 to 2.1 0.31 1.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 129.8 800.8 to -82.5 0.76 -3.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 13.6 2.7 to 106.7 0.10 0.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 1.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.8 2.2 to -2.3 0.32 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 0.9 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.1 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.6% 13.8% 13.6% 12.7% 0.0% 11.5% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.6% 1.4% 0.8% 0.3% 0.0% 0.4% 0.6% 0.9% Bayesian: 0.4% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.2% 5.2% 4.8% 4.3% 0.0% 4.0% 0.2% 0.3% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP942021 INVEST 11/06/21 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##