* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP942021 11/05/21 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 31 31 30 29 26 24 26 28 29 29 28 26 26 26 24 22 V (KT) LAND 30 31 31 30 29 26 24 26 28 29 29 28 26 26 26 24 22 V (KT) LGEM 30 31 31 31 29 25 22 18 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 7 10 9 10 9 15 17 16 16 22 25 27 28 26 22 28 33 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 9 11 9 11 12 6 6 1 8 8 6 3 0 3 3 5 7 SHEAR DIR 230 234 242 237 235 217 213 213 203 191 190 193 205 213 254 257 273 SST (C) 28.4 28.5 28.6 28.6 28.6 28.3 27.9 27.5 27.6 27.8 27.4 26.9 26.6 27.1 27.0 26.8 26.6 POT. INT. (KT) 146 147 148 149 149 146 142 138 138 141 138 133 131 136 135 133 130 200 MB T (C) -54.0 -53.8 -54.1 -54.3 -54.2 -54.2 -54.2 -54.3 -54.3 -54.4 -54.4 -54.3 -54.4 -54.5 -54.3 -54.0 -53.7 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.3 -0.3 -0.2 0.1 0.4 0.0 -0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 5 4 4 4 5 4 700-500 MB RH 59 62 62 62 62 64 68 75 72 71 67 64 63 62 56 52 51 MODEL VTX (KT) 12 12 12 11 11 11 10 10 9 9 8 8 6 6 5 4 3 850 MB ENV VOR -5 -12 -15 -13 -13 -16 -16 -7 -9 -11 1 8 -3 -19 -28 -17 -6 200 MB DIV 59 77 81 68 54 39 16 74 67 57 35 30 6 26 -14 10 -8 700-850 TADV -1 -2 -3 -3 -4 -5 -4 -1 -4 -1 2 0 1 1 0 1 -1 LAND (KM) 836 848 875 910 957 1064 1165 1203 1196 1219 1319 1504 1710 1932 2178 2365 2408 LAT (DEG N) 12.4 12.6 12.6 12.6 12.5 12.4 12.5 13.0 13.6 14.1 14.1 13.7 13.2 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 108.2 108.7 109.2 109.8 110.4 111.8 113.2 114.6 115.7 116.9 118.4 120.5 123.0 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 5 5 5 6 6 7 7 7 6 6 9 11 13 13 13 12 10 HEAT CONTENT 10 11 13 15 17 10 6 4 5 7 4 2 1 2 3 4 3 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 5 CX,CY: -3/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 627 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 83.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 6.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 11. 17. 21. 24. 26. 28. 28. 29. 29. 30. 31. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. -0. -2. -5. -7. -8. -8. -8. -10. -11. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -5. -4. -3. -2. -1. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -10. -12. -13. -14. -14. -13. -13. -12. -11. -10. -9. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -6. -6. -7. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -8. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 1. 0. -1. -4. -5. -4. -2. -1. -1. -1. -4. -4. -4. -6. -8. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 12.4 108.2 ** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP942021 INVEST 11/05/21 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 117.9 40.5 to 149.3 0.71 5.4 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 3.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 67.8 -33.0 to 159.5 0.52 3.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.8 19.6 to 1.3 0.59 4.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 1.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.0 37.8 to 2.1 0.61 2.9 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 106.4 800.8 to -82.5 0.79 -4.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 13.2 2.7 to 106.7 0.10 0.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 1.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.8 2.2 to -2.3 0.31 0.3 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 22% is 1.7 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 8.8% 21.6% 18.8% 17.6% 0.0% 16.8% 13.5% 11.6% Logistic: 6.9% 23.3% 15.1% 8.8% 0.3% 10.2% 3.4% 10.0% Bayesian: 1.8% 2.8% 1.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% Consensus: 5.8% 15.9% 11.7% 8.9% 0.1% 9.0% 5.7% 7.2% DTOPS: 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP942021 INVEST 11/05/21 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##