* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP942021 11/05/21 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 26 26 26 24 27 30 35 40 40 40 38 37 39 39 38 V (KT) LAND 25 26 26 26 26 24 27 30 35 40 40 40 38 37 39 39 38 V (KT) LGEM 25 26 27 27 26 24 22 19 17 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 12 8 7 5 3 5 12 13 12 7 19 29 28 19 14 4 11 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 6 8 9 9 14 9 8 0 4 2 0 -1 8 8 2 4 SHEAR DIR 242 244 213 208 216 201 204 195 199 166 157 147 155 154 150 296 264 SST (C) 28.5 28.5 28.5 28.6 28.6 28.4 28.3 28.1 27.9 27.7 27.4 27.3 27.7 27.9 27.8 28.0 27.9 POT. INT. (KT) 148 147 147 148 148 147 146 144 141 138 135 136 142 144 143 145 143 200 MB T (C) -54.5 -54.4 -54.2 -54.0 -54.1 -54.0 -54.0 -54.1 -54.3 -54.2 -54.2 -53.8 -53.9 -54.0 -53.9 -53.9 -53.7 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.3 -0.3 0.0 0.2 0.1 -0.2 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 4 4 4 3 3 3 4 4 4 5 4 4 4 700-500 MB RH 62 59 60 62 63 62 65 70 77 72 69 66 63 57 56 52 49 MODEL VTX (KT) 10 10 10 11 12 11 12 11 12 12 10 10 9 7 6 4 3 850 MB ENV VOR 1 0 -4 -8 -9 -6 -1 1 11 5 26 48 51 39 12 -9 -14 200 MB DIV 40 31 57 69 76 71 38 7 51 50 37 19 56 4 18 3 -32 700-850 TADV -1 -2 -1 -1 -2 -3 -3 -4 -2 -3 0 2 2 0 2 0 -1 LAND (KM) 840 859 875 902 923 1018 1123 1230 1288 1308 1316 1432 1610 1835 2057 2267 2416 LAT (DEG N) 11.9 12.0 12.1 12.1 12.1 11.7 11.3 11.1 11.4 11.9 12.1 11.5 10.6 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 107.5 108.0 108.4 108.8 109.2 110.2 111.3 112.6 113.7 114.4 115.1 116.3 118.0 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 6 5 4 4 4 6 6 6 5 4 4 8 11 12 13 11 10 HEAT CONTENT 10 10 11 12 14 22 18 9 7 5 4 4 8 14 12 27 22 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 6 CX,CY: -5/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 668 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 23.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 67.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 5.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 6. 12. 18. 24. 27. 30. 32. 33. 34. 36. 37. 39. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 5. 4. 4. 4. 3. 1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -2. -2. -5. -5. -5. -3. -2. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -2. -3. -4. -7. -9. -11. -12. -12. -11. -10. -9. -8. -7. -6. -6. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -7. -8. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 2. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 0. -1. -2. -4. -4. -5. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -3. -2. -1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 1. 1. 1. -1. 2. 5. 10. 15. 15. 15. 13. 12. 14. 14. 13. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 11.9 107.5 ** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP942021 INVEST 11/05/21 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 122.4 40.5 to 149.3 0.75 5.5 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 3.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 54.6 -33.0 to 159.5 0.46 3.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.1 19.6 to 1.3 0.68 4.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 23.2 37.8 to 2.1 0.41 1.9 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 87.2 800.8 to -82.5 0.81 -4.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 11.4 2.7 to 106.7 0.08 0.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 1.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.1 2.2 to -2.3 0.50 0.4 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 1.4 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 18.0% 16.7% 0.0% 0.0% 16.9% 15.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.1% 7.0% 3.3% 1.4% 0.0% 3.4% 2.6% 9.6% Bayesian: 0.6% 0.8% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.6% 8.6% 6.7% 0.5% 0.0% 6.8% 5.9% 3.2% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP942021 INVEST 11/05/21 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##