* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP942021 11/05/21 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 20 20 19 18 18 18 20 23 28 29 33 33 33 33 33 34 33 V (KT) LAND 20 20 19 18 18 18 20 23 28 29 33 33 33 33 33 34 33 V (KT) LGEM 20 20 19 19 18 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 12 14 12 9 6 5 11 12 14 10 14 22 24 18 9 10 8 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 1 5 7 8 8 11 7 1 4 10 5 3 7 11 6 7 SHEAR DIR 220 226 232 216 209 197 198 204 205 195 160 162 167 169 170 231 268 SST (C) 28.6 28.5 28.5 28.5 28.6 28.5 28.3 28.1 27.8 27.6 27.3 27.3 27.6 27.4 26.9 27.5 27.5 POT. INT. (KT) 149 147 147 147 148 147 146 144 140 138 134 136 140 139 134 140 140 200 MB T (C) -54.4 -54.6 -54.6 -54.3 -54.1 -54.2 -53.8 -54.2 -54.1 -54.4 -54.1 -54.2 -53.9 -54.1 -54.0 -54.1 -53.9 200 MB VXT (C) -0.2 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.3 -0.3 -0.2 0.0 0.1 -0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 4 5 5 5 5 4 4 3 3 3 3 4 4 4 4 4 4 700-500 MB RH 66 63 59 61 64 64 65 67 73 75 73 71 66 67 61 63 56 MODEL VTX (KT) 9 9 9 9 10 11 10 10 11 10 10 9 9 8 7 6 5 850 MB ENV VOR 3 0 -2 -7 -11 -7 -2 1 8 1 17 26 43 46 41 12 -8 200 MB DIV 66 38 32 54 76 66 60 15 20 71 79 2 8 17 22 24 -19 700-850 TADV 0 -1 -1 -1 -1 -2 -4 -2 -1 -1 0 1 3 1 0 1 0 LAND (KM) 812 827 856 882 907 975 1088 1218 1312 1344 1361 1413 1568 1767 2002 2199 2388 LAT (DEG N) 11.9 12.1 12.1 12.1 12.1 11.9 11.4 10.9 10.9 11.4 11.7 11.7 11.1 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 107.0 107.6 108.1 108.5 108.9 109.8 110.9 112.2 113.5 114.4 115.2 116.3 118.1 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 7 5 4 4 4 5 7 7 6 5 5 7 11 13 13 13 12 HEAT CONTENT 11 11 11 11 12 19 20 11 6 5 4 4 6 4 2 6 6 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 7 CX,CY: -6/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 708 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 39.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 3.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -0. 1. 5. 12. 20. 26. 30. 33. 35. 37. 38. 39. 40. 43. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 4. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -9. -11. -12. -12. -12. -11. -10. -9. -8. -7. -7. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -7. -8. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. GOES PREDICTORS -0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. -7. -8. -7. -6. -6. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -0. 3. 8. 9. 13. 13. 13. 13. 13. 14. 13. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 11.9 107.0 ** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP942021 INVEST 11/05/21 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 127.6 40.5 to 149.3 0.80 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 53.2 -33.0 to 159.5 0.45 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.8 19.6 to 1.3 0.48 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 20.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.8 37.8 to 2.1 0.59 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 63.8 800.8 to -82.5 0.83 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 11.2 2.7 to 106.7 0.08 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 3.0 56.6 to 0.0 0.95 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.6 2.2 to -2.3 0.36 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.4% 4.2% 1.4% 0.7% 0.0% 2.3% 0.9% 4.7% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.1% 1.4% 0.5% 0.2% 0.0% 0.8% 0.3% 1.6% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP942021 INVEST 11/05/21 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##