* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP942021 11/04/21 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 20 20 19 19 19 19 22 26 30 32 34 37 37 36 36 36 35 V (KT) LAND 20 20 19 19 19 19 22 26 30 32 34 37 37 36 36 36 35 V (KT) LGEM 20 20 19 19 18 17 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 6 9 10 8 8 8 9 10 9 10 11 18 17 16 11 8 5 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 4 3 6 6 6 9 8 5 2 2 2 3 3 4 6 9 SHEAR DIR 221 211 218 229 217 212 167 206 212 190 158 137 142 146 154 123 69 SST (C) 28.6 28.5 28.4 28.3 28.3 28.2 28.0 27.7 27.5 27.5 27.5 27.5 27.8 28.1 27.7 27.2 26.8 POT. INT. (KT) 149 147 146 144 145 144 143 140 137 136 136 136 141 145 141 136 132 200 MB T (C) -54.4 -54.3 -54.5 -54.5 -54.3 -54.2 -54.0 -54.0 -53.8 -54.0 -54.0 -53.7 -53.8 -54.1 -54.1 -54.0 -54.0 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.2 -0.3 -0.2 -0.1 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.2 -0.1 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 5 5 4 4 4 3 2 2 2 3 3 3 3 3 3 700-500 MB RH 68 68 63 61 60 64 61 66 66 71 69 67 63 58 55 55 53 MODEL VTX (KT) 9 9 9 9 10 11 12 12 11 11 10 11 11 9 8 7 6 850 MB ENV VOR 15 13 8 6 4 2 8 22 23 26 30 56 58 52 39 24 -5 200 MB DIV 71 76 67 64 72 62 31 22 17 38 39 34 29 31 17 41 48 700-850 TADV -2 -2 -2 -1 -1 -2 -3 -1 -2 -1 -2 0 1 1 -1 -1 -3 LAND (KM) 825 847 884 901 933 1019 1140 1277 1395 1444 1474 1518 1633 1804 1964 2132 2308 LAT (DEG N) 11.5 11.6 11.5 11.5 11.4 11.0 10.3 9.5 9.0 9.1 9.3 9.3 8.8 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 106.5 107.1 107.6 107.9 108.3 109.1 110.0 111.1 112.3 113.2 113.9 114.5 115.5 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 7 5 4 3 4 5 7 6 6 4 3 4 7 9 10 11 10 HEAT CONTENT 11 11 10 10 10 13 21 18 11 9 9 11 24 34 17 7 5 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 715 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 43.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 3.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. 1. 5. 12. 20. 26. 30. 33. 34. 36. 37. 39. 40. 42. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 5. 5. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -2. -3. -4. -7. -8. -10. -11. -12. -12. -10. -9. -8. -6. -5. -4. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -8. -8. -8. -10. -11. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. 2. 1. -1. -2. -3. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 1. 1. -0. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. -6. -6. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 2. 6. 10. 12. 14. 17. 17. 16. 16. 16. 15. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 11.5 106.5 ** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP942021 INVEST 11/04/21 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 126.3 40.5 to 149.3 0.79 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 70.0 -33.0 to 159.5 0.54 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.1 19.6 to 1.3 0.63 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 20.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.4 37.8 to 2.1 0.66 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 56.2 800.8 to -82.5 0.84 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 10.4 2.7 to 106.7 0.07 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.6 2.2 to -2.3 0.36 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.1% 8.8% 3.8% 1.9% 0.1% 3.9% 1.5% 5.2% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.4% 3.0% 1.3% 0.6% 0.0% 1.3% 0.5% 1.7% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP942021 INVEST 11/04/21 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##