* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP942021 06/18/21 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 34 39 44 47 51 46 44 43 42 41 42 44 46 47 46 48 V (KT) LAND 30 34 39 44 47 51 40 40 30 28 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGEM 30 34 38 41 43 43 34 34 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 8 11 17 18 18 17 15 9 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 2 0 2 2 4 4 7 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 93 87 73 108 92 112 151 203 262 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 30.0 30.1 30.2 30.2 30.1 30.0 28.9 28.3 25.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 164 165 166 166 165 165 155 149 121 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.3 -52.8 -52.9 -52.2 -51.8 -52.1 -51.3 -51.9 -51.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 6 6 5 6 4 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 85 83 78 77 77 73 67 61 58 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 13 12 13 15 15 13 4 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 68 65 63 64 71 75 87 72 61 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 126 102 91 122 144 104 87 -3 -11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 0 -2 -1 -5 -8 -1 3 -1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 262 252 242 251 246 132 -23 4 -208 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 14.5 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 100.5 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 8 8 7 6 7 11 13 15 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 30 31 30 28 27 24 12 9 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 359 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 91.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 32.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. 0. 5. 11. 18. 23. 27. 30. 33. 35. 38. 40. 42. 45. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 1. 0. -1. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -6. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 2. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -2. -3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 0. 2. 2. 0. -8. -11. -12. -12. -12. -12. -11. -10. -9. -8. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. -0. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. -3. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 6. 4. 1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 4. 9. 14. 17. 21. 16. 14. 13. 12. 11. 12. 14. 16. 17. 16. 18. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 14.5 100.5 ** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP942021 INVEST 06/18/21 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 135.3 40.5 to 149.3 0.87 7.2 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.48 4.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 117.0 -33.0 to 159.5 0.78 6.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.4 19.6 to 1.3 0.28 2.1 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 1.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.2 37.8 to 2.1 0.75 3.9 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 16.2 800.8 to -82.5 0.89 -5.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 29.2 2.7 to 106.7 0.25 1.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 1.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.0 2.2 to -2.3 0.50 0.5 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 42% is 3.3 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 23% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 22% is 3.5 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 24% is 3.6 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 32% is 5.5 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 25% is 5.3 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 12.8% 41.5% 23.0% 21.7% 0.0% 24.0% 32.3% 24.9% Logistic: 5.2% 25.8% 11.9% 8.1% 1.6% 26.3% 23.5% 8.5% Bayesian: 0.9% 6.4% 5.2% 0.7% 0.1% 0.8% 0.2% 0.2% Consensus: 6.3% 24.6% 13.4% 10.2% 0.5% 17.0% 18.7% 11.2% DTOPS: 2.0% 15.0% 8.0% 6.0% 3.0% 4.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP942021 INVEST 06/18/21 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##