* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP942021 06/17/21 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 20 23 27 31 34 45 51 42 40 40 39 39 38 39 37 36 34 V (KT) LAND 20 23 27 31 34 35 30 28 27 27 27 27 27 27 29 28 26 V (KT) LGEM 20 21 22 23 25 24 26 26 27 27 27 27 27 27 29 26 25 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 6 9 4 6 6 15 19 19 13 11 13 16 9 5 13 17 15 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 1 1 4 6 4 3 4 0 -4 2 -4 1 1 0 3 3 SHEAR DIR 60 49 50 82 121 158 179 201 252 299 308 310 25 37 71 87 98 SST (C) 29.9 29.9 29.9 30.2 30.3 28.2 27.2 27.1 26.1 25.9 25.8 25.8 25.8 26.1 29.3 28.1 20.7 POT. INT. (KT) 162 162 162 166 167 147 137 135 124 120 116 119 120 124 157 145 69 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -52.8 -52.4 -52.9 -52.9 -51.8 -52.1 -51.3 -52.1 -51.8 -52.3 -52.2 -52.4 -52.0 -52.5 -52.3 -52.7 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 4 6 6 5 4 7 5 9 7 14 11 17 8 10 4 4 0 700-500 MB RH 86 86 86 87 83 82 78 70 65 57 53 54 59 55 55 50 48 MODEL VTX (KT) 8 11 13 13 14 17 15 5 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 54 63 73 81 73 95 88 77 52 38 37 40 63 39 54 39 39 200 MB DIV 88 106 122 87 94 115 80 34 11 5 -17 -7 39 30 -11 -23 -2 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 1 0 -5 0 5 3 6 -2 0 5 0 -3 -3 LAND (KM) 235 218 180 142 95 -42 -196 -292 -320 -420 -461 -416 -283 -111 45 18 76 LAT (DEG N) 13.9 14.2 14.7 15.2 15.8 17.5 19.7 21.9 23.8 25.0 25.5 25.3 24.6 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 98.3 98.8 99.1 99.4 99.7 100.5 101.5 102.5 102.9 102.6 102.5 102.9 104.0 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 6 6 6 6 8 11 12 11 8 4 1 4 8 9 9 10 11 HEAT CONTENT 30 29 30 34 37 13 4 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 12 6 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 7 CX,CY: -6/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 387 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 81.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 32.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -2. -2. 4. 12. 20. 26. 30. 32. 34. 34. 34. 36. 38. 37. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 3. 0. -2. -3. -4. -4. -2. -3. -6. -8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 0. -1. -1. -2. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 1. 2. 5. 5. 6. 5. 5. 3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 2. 4. 4. 6. 7. -3. -6. -6. -6. -6. -5. -5. -4. -4. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. RI POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 6. 4. 1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 3. 7. 11. 14. 25. 31. 22. 20. 20. 19. 19. 18. 19. 17. 16. 14. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 13.9 98.3 ** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP942021 INVEST 06/17/21 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 143.9 40.5 to 149.3 0.95 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 99.4 -33.0 to 159.5 0.69 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.1 19.6 to 1.3 0.74 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 20.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.4 37.8 to 2.1 0.57 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : -5.6 800.8 to -82.5 0.91 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 32.0 2.7 to 106.7 0.28 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.1 2.2 to -2.3 0.51 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.8% 23.3% 12.2% 6.5% 0.5% 33.3% 64.3% 17.7% Bayesian: 0.4% 2.4% 2.1% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.5% Consensus: 0.7% 8.6% 4.7% 2.3% 0.2% 11.1% 21.4% 6.1% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP942021 INVEST 06/17/21 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##