* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * TERRY EP182021 11/08/21 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 35 33 32 31 30 34 38 43 43 45 47 49 50 51 52 51 V (KT) LAND 35 35 33 32 31 30 34 38 43 43 45 47 49 50 51 52 51 V (KT) LGEM 35 34 33 32 30 27 25 26 28 28 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 1 6 5 2 2 3 4 5 11 9 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 11 11 12 11 8 2 0 0 -6 -3 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 316 273 292 329 240 146 116 163 220 243 195 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.4 27.6 27.8 27.8 28.0 27.8 27.2 27.5 27.1 26.6 27.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 139 141 143 143 145 143 137 140 136 132 143 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -53.5 -53.5 -53.4 -53.8 -53.9 -54.0 -54.1 -54.3 -54.8 -54.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.2 -0.1 -0.1 -0.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 3 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 66 68 66 66 66 67 68 67 66 63 60 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 13 13 12 11 10 9 8 7 8 8 8 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -38 -37 -31 -33 -35 -27 -17 -18 -19 -17 -8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 25 40 61 78 71 37 36 37 60 35 41 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -5 -7 -5 -1 4 4 2 -1 1 0 -2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 956 970 983 1031 1086 1200 1382 1542 1657 1860 2122 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 9.4 9.7 10.0 10.2 10.4 10.8 10.8 10.8 11.0 10.9 10.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 104.5 105.6 106.7 108.0 109.3 111.8 114.3 117.1 119.4 122.2 125.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 12 11 12 13 13 12 13 12 13 16 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 5 6 6 7 13 10 3 6 3 1 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 13 CX,CY: -11/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 717 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 2.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 10. 14. 18. 20. 22. 23. 24. 24. 25. 26. 27. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 8. 9. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 12. 12. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -4. -3. -2. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -5. -4. -6. -8. -9. -9. -9. -8. -8. -7. -6. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -7. -7. -8. -9. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -7. -7. -7. -7. -6. -6. -5. -5. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -2. -1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -0. -2. -3. -4. -5. -1. 3. 8. 8. 10. 12. 14. 15. 16. 17. 16. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 9.4 104.5 ** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP182021 TERRY 11/08/21 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 107.3 40.5 to 149.3 0.61 4.8 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 3.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 55.0 -33.0 to 159.5 0.46 3.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 3.3 19.6 to 1.3 0.89 6.2 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.36 1.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.0 37.8 to 2.1 0.55 2.7 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 89.2 800.8 to -82.5 0.81 -4.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 7.4 2.7 to 106.7 0.05 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 1.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.3 2.2 to -2.3 0.56 0.5 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 22% is 1.8 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 19% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 8.4% 22.1% 19.7% 18.7% 11.2% 18.8% 16.3% 0.0% Logistic: 1.6% 14.2% 6.7% 2.7% 0.0% 4.2% 2.2% 7.1% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.3% 12.1% 8.8% 7.1% 3.7% 7.6% 6.2% 2.4% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP182021 TERRY 11/08/21 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##