* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * EIGHTEEN EP182021 11/05/21 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 29 29 28 27 25 26 30 36 40 43 49 52 54 57 60 61 V (KT) LAND 30 29 29 28 27 25 26 30 36 40 43 49 52 54 57 60 61 V (KT) LGEM 30 30 29 28 27 25 22 20 19 18 17 16 16 16 17 18 19 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 2 4 4 5 3 5 7 14 7 9 4 5 7 3 5 4 6 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 2 5 6 7 4 1 5 5 7 3 -1 4 0 5 4 SHEAR DIR 281 184 209 218 199 265 328 344 8 291 350 112 115 146 148 119 109 SST (C) 28.0 28.2 28.2 28.0 27.9 27.9 27.4 27.7 27.6 28.0 28.0 28.2 28.3 28.0 27.4 27.3 27.5 POT. INT. (KT) 143 144 145 143 143 143 138 142 141 145 145 147 148 144 137 137 139 200 MB T (C) -53.4 -53.8 -54.0 -54.0 -53.8 -54.2 -53.7 -54.2 -53.7 -53.8 -53.4 -53.9 -53.6 -54.3 -53.8 -54.3 -53.5 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.2 -0.3 -0.2 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.2 -0.2 -0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 5 4 4 4 4 3 3 3 3 3 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 700-500 MB RH 72 72 73 73 73 73 76 75 76 75 72 71 75 77 72 68 61 MODEL VTX (KT) 10 10 11 11 11 11 12 13 13 15 14 14 13 12 12 14 14 850 MB ENV VOR 7 -2 -5 -15 -17 -20 -16 -18 -26 -23 -25 -26 -13 -22 -10 0 13 200 MB DIV 2 -5 -27 -31 -17 4 13 17 14 41 84 82 102 73 78 69 96 700-850 TADV 0 1 2 0 0 0 1 0 0 -2 -3 1 1 -3 -2 -2 -2 LAND (KM) 434 459 479 523 572 686 757 802 839 896 948 1025 1123 1242 1339 1408 1501 LAT (DEG N) 9.7 9.7 9.7 9.5 9.3 9.1 9.0 9.0 9.5 9.9 10.3 10.8 11.3 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 90.9 91.5 92.0 92.7 93.4 95.4 97.5 99.8 102.1 104.3 106.6 108.9 111.3 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 6 5 6 7 9 10 10 12 11 11 11 12 11 9 8 9 9 HEAT CONTENT 3 3 4 3 4 6 4 5 5 10 7 11 18 7 4 4 4 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 7 CX,CY: -6/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 564 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 37.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 6. 11. 16. 21. 24. 26. 28. 29. 31. 32. 32. 34. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 5. 6. 6. 7. 8. 8. 10. 10. 11. 12. 12. 12. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -1. -2. -3. -6. -7. -8. -7. -8. -8. -6. -5. -4. -3. -3. -2. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. -8. -9. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 0. 1. 1. 3. 4. 6. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 3. 3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. -2. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -8. -8. -8. -7. -6. -6. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -4. 0. 6. 10. 13. 19. 22. 24. 27. 30. 31. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 9.7 90.9 ** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP182021 EIGHTEEN 11/05/21 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 113.5 40.5 to 149.3 0.67 4.6 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 2.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : -15.6 -33.0 to 159.5 0.09 0.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 3.7 19.6 to 1.3 0.87 5.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 1.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.1 37.8 to 2.1 0.61 2.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 56.6 800.8 to -82.5 0.84 -4.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 3.4 2.7 to 106.7 0.01 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 1.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.4 2.2 to -2.3 0.40 0.3 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.3 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 6.9% 15.9% 14.3% 13.0% 0.0% 13.4% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 2.0% 15.5% 4.7% 2.6% 0.2% 3.8% 0.9% 10.3% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.9% 10.5% 6.3% 5.2% 0.1% 5.7% 0.3% 3.4% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP182021 EIGHTEEN 11/05/21 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##