* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * EIGHTEEN EP182021 11/04/21 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 29 28 28 27 25 27 31 37 44 51 54 58 59 60 60 62 V (KT) LAND 30 29 28 28 27 25 27 31 37 44 51 54 58 59 60 60 62 V (KT) LGEM 30 30 29 29 28 26 23 21 20 20 20 20 20 21 22 21 21 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 6 2 5 4 4 1 8 5 13 7 7 5 2 4 4 7 9 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 0 0 1 4 7 5 7 3 3 4 8 4 -1 0 4 6 SHEAR DIR 297 277 179 206 240 229 341 353 345 17 31 27 23 240 265 249 265 SST (C) 27.6 27.9 28.1 28.2 28.0 27.9 27.8 27.4 27.7 27.5 28.1 28.1 28.4 28.6 28.3 28.1 27.8 POT. INT. (KT) 138 141 143 145 143 143 142 139 142 140 146 146 148 150 146 143 139 200 MB T (C) -53.5 -53.5 -53.8 -54.0 -54.0 -54.0 -54.1 -54.0 -53.9 -53.6 -53.6 -53.7 -53.7 -53.7 -53.8 -53.8 -54.0 200 MB VXT (C) -0.2 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 5 4 4 4 4 4 3 3 3 3 4 4 4 5 5 5 5 700-500 MB RH 70 73 73 73 73 74 77 79 74 73 69 67 69 71 65 63 57 MODEL VTX (KT) 10 10 10 10 10 10 11 12 12 14 15 14 13 14 13 12 14 850 MB ENV VOR 11 8 1 1 -8 -20 -23 -27 -18 -30 -22 -17 -12 -16 -19 -13 -9 200 MB DIV -22 0 -8 -19 -5 9 33 7 19 50 103 135 87 60 57 94 50 700-850 TADV 0 0 2 2 0 0 0 0 -1 0 -1 -1 2 2 -2 -2 -3 LAND (KM) 414 442 472 510 537 621 739 761 827 885 912 934 1002 1048 1086 1137 1176 LAT (DEG N) 9.6 9.6 9.5 9.4 9.3 9.1 9.0 9.1 9.0 9.4 10.1 10.8 11.4 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 90.2 90.8 91.3 91.9 92.5 94.1 96.1 98.3 100.6 102.9 105.1 107.3 109.4 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 6 5 6 6 7 9 10 11 11 11 11 11 9 8 6 5 4 HEAT CONTENT 2 3 3 3 3 4 6 3 5 5 8 8 16 18 9 7 6 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 7 CX,CY: -5/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 626 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 24.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 43.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 6. 11. 16. 20. 24. 26. 28. 29. 31. 32. 33. 35. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 6. 8. 8. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. 13. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -1. -2. -3. -7. -8. -8. -8. -7. -6. -4. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. -7. -8. -9. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 7. 4. 3. 4. 3. 2. 3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -7. -6. -5. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -2. -1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -3. 1. 7. 14. 21. 24. 28. 29. 30. 30. 32. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 9.6 90.2 ** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP182021 EIGHTEEN 11/04/21 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 112.1 40.5 to 149.3 0.66 3.6 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 2.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : -10.8 -33.0 to 159.5 0.12 0.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.0 19.6 to 1.3 0.85 4.1 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 0.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 24.7 37.8 to 2.1 0.37 1.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 55.8 800.8 to -82.5 0.84 -3.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 2.8 2.7 to 106.7 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 1.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.2 2.2 to -2.3 0.23 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.7 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 0.9 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.2% 15.4% 10.4% 8.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 3.3% 24.2% 8.3% 4.7% 0.7% 6.9% 1.3% 12.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.5% 13.2% 6.3% 4.4% 0.2% 2.3% 0.4% 4.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP182021 EIGHTEEN 11/04/21 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##