* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * PAMELA EP162021 10/11/21 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 55 62 69 76 82 89 87 69 59 52 47 44 43 42 40 37 35 V (KT) LAND 55 62 69 76 82 89 87 47 33 29 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGEM 55 61 66 71 76 81 75 44 32 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 11 8 9 11 11 13 23 35 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -2 -2 0 3 5 4 3 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 358 342 304 304 286 235 221 220 229 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 29.5 29.5 29.5 29.5 29.6 30.8 30.9 28.5 28.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 159 159 159 159 160 172 173 153 153 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.2 -52.0 -51.7 -52.0 -51.9 -51.3 -51.1 -50.6 -50.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 8 8 7 5 6 4 8 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 64 62 62 59 58 55 47 46 33 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 17 19 20 21 23 24 22 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 4 -2 -7 -6 3 20 59 43 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 47 60 71 55 53 57 70 56 74 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -5 -6 -6 -9 -6 2 -2 1 33 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 437 450 470 442 413 240 98 -290 -425 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 16.6 17.1 17.6 18.4 19.2 21.0 23.1 25.7 28.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 107.9 108.5 109.1 109.3 109.6 108.9 107.6 105.0 101.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 7 8 8 8 9 11 14 19 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 20 19 19 19 20 43 40 12 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):310/ 6 CX,CY: -4/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 558 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 5.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 60.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 10. 12. 14. 15. 17. 19. 21. 23. 24. 25. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -3. -7. -10. -13. -14. -14. -15. -17. -19. -20. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 2. 3. 5. 5. 4. -7. -7. -8. -8. -7. -7. -6. -5. -5. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. GOES PREDICTORS 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. RI POTENTIAL 2. 4. 8. 11. 17. 16. 9. 2. -2. -6. -9. -10. -10. -10. -10. -9. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 7. 14. 21. 27. 34. 32. 14. 4. -3. -8. -11. -12. -13. -15. -18. -20. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 16.6 107.9 ** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP162021 PAMELA 10/11/21 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 104.2 40.5 to 149.3 0.59 9.2 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.48 8.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 57.2 -33.0 to 159.5 0.47 6.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.0 19.6 to 1.3 0.53 7.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 55.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.92 10.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 5.2 37.8 to 2.1 0.91 9.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 268.6 800.8 to -82.5 0.60 -6.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 19.4 2.7 to 106.7 0.16 1.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 1.5 56.6 to 0.0 0.97 3.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.1 2.2 to -2.3 0.46 0.8 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 26% is 4.1 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 62% is 5.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 50% is 5.8 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 36% is 5.9 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 26% is 6.2 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 47% is 7.1 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 29% is 5.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 26.0% 62.4% 49.7% 36.4% 25.9% 47.3% 29.3% 0.0% Logistic: 30.7% 43.6% 32.4% 22.9% 14.7% 21.0% 4.4% 0.1% Bayesian: 8.7% 20.3% 6.4% 3.1% 1.6% 0.8% 0.1% 0.0% Consensus: 21.8% 42.1% 29.5% 20.8% 14.1% 23.0% 11.3% 0.0% DTOPS: 46.0% 71.0% 48.0% 25.0% 22.0% 55.0% 28.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP162021 PAMELA 10/11/21 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##