* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * OLAF EP152021 09/09/21 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 55 61 65 68 69 72 68 63 58 55 51 48 46 48 50 52 54 V (KT) LAND 55 61 65 68 69 72 68 63 58 55 51 48 46 48 50 52 54 V (KT) LGEM 55 61 65 67 69 68 64 56 49 42 36 32 29 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 7 10 10 6 7 2 1 3 4 7 4 6 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 1 2 3 3 7 8 7 5 1 3 -2 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 243 258 273 256 261 308 339 49 7 40 125 123 170 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.9 28.6 28.8 28.9 28.9 27.4 25.8 24.8 25.5 25.7 25.3 25.4 25.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 152 150 152 153 153 137 120 109 117 118 115 117 115 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -52.9 -52.5 -52.1 -52.1 -52.1 -52.0 -52.1 -52.1 -52.4 -52.3 -52.4 -52.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.5 0.8 0.6 0.7 0.6 0.4 0.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 7 8 6 6 5 5 4 3 3 2 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 60 59 56 51 49 46 42 38 38 34 31 28 26 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 14 15 15 15 13 15 13 13 12 12 11 10 9 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 48 25 31 36 21 5 1 3 1 8 -5 -2 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 54 32 34 22 18 -8 9 -25 -27 -31 -58 -64 -75 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 3 4 4 1 -4 3 4 11 9 7 5 5 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 220 279 201 120 59 132 176 280 406 536 662 810 995 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 20.2 20.8 21.4 21.9 22.4 23.1 23.5 23.4 23.2 22.8 22.3 21.9 21.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 107.8 108.4 108.9 109.6 110.2 111.8 113.3 114.6 115.9 117.1 118.2 119.8 122.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 6 8 8 8 8 8 6 6 6 6 7 9 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 16 12 13 15 18 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):345/ 5 CX,CY: 0/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 504 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 95.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 28.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 4. 3. 2. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 8. 8. 9. 10. 10. 10. 10. 10. 10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. PERSISTENCE 3. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 2. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -7. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. -1. 1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -5. -5. -4. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -3. -1. 0. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. RI POTENTIAL 1. 1. 3. 4. 6. 5. 3. 1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 6. 10. 13. 14. 17. 14. 8. 3. -0. -4. -7. -9. -7. -5. -3. -1. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 20.2 107.8 ** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP152021 OLAF 09/09/21 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 96.8 40.5 to 149.3 0.52 5.9 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 15.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.56 7.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 32.0 -33.0 to 159.5 0.34 3.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.2 19.6 to 1.3 0.63 6.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 55.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.92 7.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.7 37.8 to 2.1 0.73 5.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 289.0 800.8 to -82.5 0.58 -4.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 14.8 2.7 to 106.7 0.12 0.7 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 14.6 56.6 to 0.0 0.74 1.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.2 2.2 to -2.3 0.53 0.7 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 20% is 3.1 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 46% is 3.7 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 34% is 3.9 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 25% is 4.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 3.5 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 23% is 3.4 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 19.7% 45.8% 33.9% 24.8% 14.9% 22.7% 15.3% 0.0% Logistic: 13.8% 17.5% 16.4% 8.3% 2.9% 11.8% 2.1% 0.9% Bayesian: 1.3% 2.9% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 11.6% 22.1% 16.9% 11.1% 6.0% 11.5% 5.8% 0.3% DTOPS: 24.0% 33.0% 25.0% 19.0% 12.0% 11.0% 1.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP152021 OLAF 09/09/21 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##