* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP962021 09/07/21 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 35 41 47 53 61 67 68 70 63 59 55 50 44 38 39 40 V (KT) LAND 30 35 41 47 53 61 67 68 70 63 59 55 50 44 38 39 40 V (KT) LGEM 30 33 37 41 45 51 55 54 51 46 39 34 29 24 19 N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 1 3 0 6 9 10 7 4 6 8 3 0 8 15 19 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -5 -3 -3 -4 -5 0 4 6 8 5 9 6 7 8 6 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 83 87 91 229 245 256 254 239 161 174 292 23 111 118 110 N/A N/A SST (C) 28.8 28.8 28.8 28.6 28.4 28.1 28.1 27.3 25.5 25.3 25.3 23.8 23.5 22.9 22.3 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 150 149 149 148 146 144 145 137 118 116 115 99 96 90 83 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -52.5 -52.7 -52.9 -52.6 -52.6 -52.6 -52.2 -51.9 -51.5 -51.7 -51.7 -51.8 -51.8 -51.9 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.6 1.0 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.1 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 7 6 6 6 6 6 5 5 3 2 1 0 0 0 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 64 64 64 60 58 59 57 54 52 48 46 40 36 31 27 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 10 11 13 15 17 18 19 18 20 17 15 13 13 10 8 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 35 46 56 56 66 71 51 32 26 9 0 -2 29 23 19 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 24 29 62 59 39 17 22 12 -1 -18 -51 -40 -21 -37 -21 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 2 3 4 6 0 4 2 5 8 6 6 1 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 326 347 367 370 373 380 263 233 269 352 401 491 645 780 901 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 18.1 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 107.8 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 3 2 3 4 5 7 8 9 9 10 8 7 7 7 6 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 18 17 17 15 14 11 13 8 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 5 CX,CY: -4/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 507 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 92.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 39.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 11. 17. 21. 23. 24. 24. 22. 20. 17. 17. 17. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 7. 7. 9. 10. 8. 6. 6. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 2. 4. 5. 6. 9. 10. 14. 9. 7. 4. 3. 0. -2. -2. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. RI POTENTIAL 1. 2. 4. 6. 10. 9. 5. 1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 5. 11. 17. 23. 31. 37. 38. 40. 33. 29. 25. 20. 14. 8. 9. 10. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 18.1 107.8 ** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP962021 INVEST 09/07/21 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 118.2 40.5 to 149.3 0.71 5.7 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 3.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 42.6 -33.0 to 159.5 0.39 2.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 3.9 19.6 to 1.3 0.86 6.1 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 1.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.4 37.8 to 2.1 0.68 3.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 140.2 800.8 to -82.5 0.75 -4.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 16.2 2.7 to 106.7 0.13 0.6 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 1.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.9 2.2 to -2.3 0.29 0.3 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 24% is 1.9 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 21% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 3.3 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 19% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 11.5% 24.3% 21.4% 20.3% 0.0% 18.6% 15.7% 12.8% Logistic: 14.9% 28.8% 18.6% 10.6% 5.4% 11.1% 13.7% 4.5% Bayesian: 0.2% 2.4% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 8.9% 18.5% 13.5% 10.3% 1.8% 9.9% 9.8% 5.8% DTOPS: 3.0% 28.0% 13.0% 10.0% 6.0% 9.0% 16.0% 15.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP962021 INVEST 09/07/21 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##