* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP962021 09/07/21 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 34 38 43 49 55 62 67 66 63 59 54 47 41 33 34 36 V (KT) LAND 30 34 38 43 49 55 62 67 66 63 59 54 47 41 33 34 36 V (KT) LGEM 30 33 36 40 43 49 52 52 49 43 37 31 25 18 N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 4 1 2 1 3 8 8 9 9 13 3 5 8 15 22 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -5 -3 -3 -3 -5 -1 2 5 5 9 10 9 14 12 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 77 93 46 138 197 259 259 241 219 172 215 90 93 103 121 N/A N/A SST (C) 28.9 28.8 28.8 28.7 28.6 28.3 28.2 27.2 25.5 25.4 25.2 23.4 22.7 22.1 21.4 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 151 149 149 148 147 146 146 136 118 117 114 95 88 83 76 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -53.0 -52.7 -52.8 -53.0 -52.6 -52.9 -52.4 -52.4 -51.8 -52.0 -51.9 -52.1 -51.9 -51.9 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.9 0.7 0.6 0.3 0.2 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 5 6 7 6 5 7 5 6 4 4 2 1 0 0 0 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 67 63 63 63 61 60 60 57 54 49 48 42 37 29 25 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 8 10 11 12 16 16 17 19 18 17 15 14 13 10 7 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 23 27 43 54 56 72 57 46 15 13 -1 -3 -10 7 3 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 36 14 24 54 61 38 3 31 -23 -21 -29 -30 -29 -13 -10 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 8 3 12 5 7 7 7 6 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 360 379 397 409 421 436 341 273 290 368 401 466 598 779 1011 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 17.7 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 107.9 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 5 2 3 3 3 6 9 11 10 10 9 7 8 10 12 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 18 17 16 15 14 12 14 6 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 7 CX,CY: -6/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 390 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 81.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 28.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 11. 17. 21. 23. 24. 24. 22. 19. 16. 16. 16. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 7. 7. 6. 6. 7. 7. 6. 3. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -9. -10. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 3. 6. 6. 8. 13. 13. 12. 9. 7. 5. 1. -2. -1. -1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. RI POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 5. 3. 1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 4. 8. 13. 19. 25. 32. 37. 36. 33. 29. 24. 17. 11. 3. 4. 6. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 17.7 107.9 ** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP962021 INVEST 09/07/21 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 118.9 40.5 to 149.3 0.72 5.7 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 3.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 37.8 -33.0 to 159.5 0.37 2.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 2.5 19.6 to 1.3 0.94 6.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 1.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.9 37.8 to 2.1 0.50 2.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 138.2 800.8 to -82.5 0.75 -4.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 16.0 2.7 to 106.7 0.13 0.5 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 1.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.6 2.2 to -2.3 0.13 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 22% is 1.7 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 3.1 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 19% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 9.1% 21.7% 20.4% 19.5% 0.0% 18.6% 15.2% 0.0% Logistic: 5.8% 15.6% 10.1% 4.7% 1.6% 5.2% 14.4% 4.2% Bayesian: 0.3% 1.8% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 5.1% 13.0% 10.3% 8.1% 0.5% 8.0% 9.9% 1.4% DTOPS: 1.0% 19.0% 10.0% 6.0% 4.0% 10.0% 10.0% 24.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP962021 INVEST 09/07/21 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##