* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP962021 09/06/21 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 31 35 39 47 55 68 71 72 65 60 49 42 36 31 23 V (KT) LAND 25 27 31 35 39 47 55 68 71 72 65 60 49 42 36 31 23 V (KT) LGEM 25 27 29 30 32 37 44 52 57 58 54 46 37 29 23 20 17 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP TROP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 14 12 7 2 6 7 7 13 14 9 13 18 27 23 29 19 30 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -2 -2 -1 -2 -5 -5 -5 -3 1 2 0 0 2 -4 3 4 SHEAR DIR 33 32 25 337 314 285 273 263 255 232 197 174 166 163 175 212 254 SST (C) 28.8 29.1 29.2 29.3 29.4 29.4 29.2 28.7 28.6 27.6 24.7 23.6 21.8 20.8 20.4 20.1 19.9 POT. INT. (KT) 152 155 155 155 156 156 155 151 151 141 112 100 81 70 64 58 57 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -53.3 -53.3 -52.9 -53.3 -53.1 -52.7 -52.5 -52.6 -52.5 -52.2 -51.8 -51.5 -51.5 -51.5 -51.4 -51.3 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.1 -0.1 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.7 1.4 1.1 1.1 0.9 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 7 6 6 6 7 5 5 3 1 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 78 77 75 74 74 69 67 66 66 61 56 55 51 50 46 44 39 MODEL VTX (KT) 6 7 8 9 9 12 14 21 21 22 19 19 16 16 16 17 15 850 MB ENV VOR 29 24 24 32 40 35 53 63 74 64 35 29 9 20 -1 8 7 200 MB DIV 47 49 53 90 70 28 62 59 36 22 5 -17 -10 -3 19 25 25 700-850 TADV -2 -1 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 3 5 5 3 0 10 -3 0 LAND (KM) 259 246 216 197 191 199 213 282 178 201 263 378 567 749 825 846 814 LAT (DEG N) 16.2 16.8 17.4 17.8 18.1 18.6 19.2 20.2 21.3 22.5 23.9 25.4 26.7 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 104.4 105.1 105.5 105.9 106.2 106.7 107.3 108.4 109.9 112.1 114.7 117.7 120.6 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 9 8 6 5 4 3 5 8 10 13 15 15 14 11 7 3 3 HEAT CONTENT 18 19 19 20 21 21 22 19 17 9 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):310/ 10 CX,CY: -7/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 542 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 16.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 25.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. 1. 5. 12. 19. 25. 29. 31. 32. 31. 28. 25. 22. 18. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 4. 3. 2. 0. -2. -5. -9. -13. -17. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 1. 3. 4. 5. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. -8. -10. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 19. 21. 23. 18. 17. 12. 10. 10. 9. 7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -9. -10. -11. -11. -12. -11. -9. -9. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. RI POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 4. 2. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 6. 10. 14. 22. 30. 43. 46. 47. 40. 35. 24. 17. 11. 6. -2. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 16.2 104.4 ** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP962021 INVEST 09/06/21 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 129.8 40.5 to 149.3 0.82 6.5 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 3.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 61.8 -33.0 to 159.5 0.49 3.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.9 19.6 to 1.3 0.64 4.5 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.5 37.8 to 2.1 0.76 3.8 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 58.2 800.8 to -82.5 0.84 -4.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 19.4 2.7 to 106.7 0.16 0.7 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 1.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.3 2.2 to -2.3 0.42 0.4 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 25% is 2.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 19% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 20% is 3.5 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 24.9% 20.4% 0.0% 0.0% 19.4% 20.4% 0.0% Logistic: 1.4% 13.2% 6.0% 3.9% 1.2% 22.7% 17.8% 3.3% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.5% 12.9% 8.8% 1.3% 0.4% 14.0% 12.7% 1.1% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP962021 INVEST 09/06/21 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##