* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP962021 09/06/21 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 31 35 39 48 57 69 78 80 80 72 63 53 48 43 37 V (KT) LAND 25 27 31 35 39 48 57 69 78 80 80 72 63 53 48 43 37 V (KT) LGEM 25 27 29 31 33 39 46 54 61 65 64 55 44 34 27 22 18 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SUBT SHEAR (KT) 10 13 11 5 3 3 7 8 10 12 10 19 23 21 16 12 15 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -2 -3 -1 -3 0 -5 -2 -5 0 2 -1 2 1 1 0 4 SHEAR DIR 46 35 27 12 283 291 297 285 273 230 180 165 157 164 166 201 245 SST (C) 28.8 28.8 29.0 29.1 29.2 29.4 29.5 29.1 28.4 28.2 25.3 24.7 22.7 21.1 20.9 20.3 20.2 POT. INT. (KT) 152 152 153 154 155 156 158 155 148 147 118 112 90 73 70 62 59 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -53.0 -53.3 -53.2 -52.9 -53.5 -52.4 -52.6 -52.2 -52.3 -51.8 -52.0 -51.4 -51.7 -51.7 -51.7 -51.7 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.6 0.7 0.6 1.0 1.0 1.0 0.8 TH_E DEV (C) 8 7 6 7 7 5 7 6 7 4 4 2 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 77 78 79 77 76 74 70 67 66 65 59 57 52 50 45 39 36 MODEL VTX (KT) 6 6 7 8 10 13 15 20 24 25 27 25 22 20 19 18 16 850 MB ENV VOR 30 36 34 31 43 36 49 62 79 76 65 37 19 18 5 -10 -10 200 MB DIV 23 47 57 68 91 68 69 40 42 13 19 -16 -7 -24 -13 0 15 700-850 TADV 0 -2 -1 0 0 -1 0 0 0 2 4 -2 2 -2 -1 -1 -1 LAND (KM) 263 227 198 191 177 160 172 227 269 182 251 393 499 703 819 838 861 LAT (DEG N) 15.7 16.3 16.9 17.3 17.7 18.3 18.9 19.6 20.6 21.7 23.0 24.4 25.8 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 103.4 104.0 104.5 104.9 105.3 106.0 106.6 107.7 109.2 111.2 113.8 116.7 119.5 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 9 8 7 6 5 4 5 8 9 13 14 15 14 12 9 5 3 HEAT CONTENT 17 18 19 19 19 21 22 23 14 22 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):310/ 9 CX,CY: -6/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 550 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 32.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 24.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. 1. 5. 12. 19. 25. 29. 32. 33. 32. 30. 27. 24. 21. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 5. 4. 4. 2. 0. -2. -4. -6. -8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -10. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 9. 17. 25. 26. 28. 24. 18. 14. 12. 10. 8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -6. -7. -8. -8. -9. -8. -7. -7. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 2. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 6. 10. 14. 23. 32. 44. 53. 55. 55. 47. 38. 28. 23. 18. 12. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 15.7 103.4 ** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP962021 INVEST 09/06/21 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 128.1 40.5 to 149.3 0.81 6.1 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 3.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 57.2 -33.0 to 159.5 0.47 3.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.3 19.6 to 1.3 0.62 4.2 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.5 37.8 to 2.1 0.57 2.7 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 42.4 800.8 to -82.5 0.86 -4.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 18.4 2.7 to 106.7 0.15 0.6 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 1.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.1 2.2 to -2.3 0.51 0.4 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 21% is 1.7 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 19% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 21.1% 18.1% 0.0% 0.0% 18.9% 17.2% 0.0% Logistic: 1.5% 16.1% 7.7% 4.6% 1.8% 32.1% 20.0% 5.6% Bayesian: 0.0% 1.2% 0.4% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.2% Consensus: 0.5% 12.8% 8.7% 1.5% 0.6% 17.0% 12.5% 1.9% DTOPS: 0.0% 4.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 1.0% 4.0% 22.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP962021 INVEST 09/06/21 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##