* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP962021 07/14/21 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 34 39 43 48 58 66 72 74 68 64 60 57 58 59 59 59 V (KT) LAND 30 34 39 43 48 58 66 72 74 68 64 60 57 58 59 59 59 V (KT) LGEM 30 33 36 39 42 49 54 57 58 55 51 45 41 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 6 6 5 5 6 3 2 0 6 6 5 5 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -3 -2 -1 -2 0 -4 -2 -3 0 3 2 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 78 76 53 40 47 38 150 78 175 233 251 238 192 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 29.2 29.3 29.2 28.8 28.7 27.6 27.0 26.4 26.1 26.2 25.8 26.0 26.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 159 159 158 154 152 140 133 126 123 125 121 123 129 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -53.4 -53.7 -53.6 -53.3 -53.4 -53.0 -53.2 -52.8 -53.1 -53.0 -53.2 -53.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) -0.2 -0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 -0.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 6 6 5 4 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 68 67 68 66 66 68 66 62 57 53 51 49 45 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 8 8 8 8 9 11 13 14 15 14 14 13 12 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -16 -16 -20 -25 -25 -26 -17 -13 -4 -3 8 9 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 9 17 31 38 34 23 36 17 -4 -30 -37 -20 -31 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 4 0 -2 -1 0 -2 0 0 0 -1 2 3 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 900 971 1010 1024 1057 1136 1230 1332 1429 1552 1691 1849 2012 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 13.6 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 110.9 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 15 13 13 13 11 9 8 7 6 8 9 10 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 21 17 19 32 20 5 3 0 0 0 0 0 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 16 CX,CY: -14/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 473 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 95.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 25.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -0. -0. 0. 1. 6. 11. 16. 20. 23. 25. 25. 25. 26. 26. 27. 28. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 9. 10. 10. 11. 11. 12. 12. 12. 12. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 4. 5. 4. 2. 1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -7. -8. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 7. 10. 8. 8. 5. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. RI POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 4. 2. 1. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 4. 9. 13. 18. 28. 36. 42. 44. 38. 34. 30. 27. 28. 29. 29. 29. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 13.6 110.9 ** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP962021 INVEST 07/14/21 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 126.2 40.5 to 149.3 0.79 6.3 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 3.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 25.8 -33.0 to 159.5 0.31 2.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.8 19.6 to 1.3 0.76 5.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 1.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.5 37.8 to 2.1 0.79 4.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 106.8 800.8 to -82.5 0.79 -4.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 21.8 2.7 to 106.7 0.18 0.8 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 1.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.3 2.2 to -2.3 0.56 0.5 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 27% is 2.2 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 21% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 3.3 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 20% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 18% is 3.1 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 16% is 3.4 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 11.1% 27.0% 21.5% 20.2% 0.0% 19.7% 18.1% 16.1% Logistic: 20.7% 56.4% 39.6% 29.2% 16.6% 38.3% 28.1% 17.5% Bayesian: 0.6% 21.4% 3.2% 0.9% 0.5% 4.5% 0.8% 0.0% Consensus: 10.8% 34.9% 21.4% 16.8% 5.7% 20.8% 15.7% 11.2% DTOPS: 2.0% 16.0% 7.0% 5.0% 3.0% 12.0% 14.0% 26.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP962021 INVEST 07/14/21 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##